AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 36). AZ Alkmaar had 7.9 days of rest, Utrecht 2.9 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days7.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
AZ Alkmaar54%
Draw24%
Utrecht22%
AZ Alkmaar53%
Draw25%
Utrecht22%
AZ Alkmaar54%
Draw24%
Utrecht22%
AZ Alkmaar46%
Draw26%
Utrecht28%
AZ Alkmaar53%
Draw25%
Utrecht22%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 41
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
52
AttackIn forecast
32
49
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
2.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
100%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
17.78
ShotsContext
15.56
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
32%
On target shareContext
36%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
64%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.33
Shots allowedContext
10.89
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.25
BlocksContext
3.86
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
79%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
455
PassesContext
435
381
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.67
FoulsContext
10.56
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
3.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
90%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.00
ShotsContext
11.80
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
31%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
65%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.75
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
431
PassesContext
428
361
Accurate passesContext
348
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
12.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km60 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 60 km | 990 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
26K. Smit
10S. Mijnans
6P. Koopmeiners
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
7Weslley Patati
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
44M. Eerdhuijzen
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
27A. Engwanda
14Z. Iqbal
15A. Blake
20D. de Wit
26M. Jonathans
9D. Min
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Utrecht · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Heracles | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Groningen | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AZ Alkmaar wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 18 Jan 2025Utrecht0–0AZ Alkmaar
- 29 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2Utrecht
- 3 Dec 2023Utrecht1–1AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.11 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.22 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 56% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.11 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.63 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.44 | 1.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 3.11 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.70 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.29league 3.41
Red cards0.07league 0.20
Cards 5+12%league 34%
Fouls16.8league 22.5
Penalties0.27league 0.24
Home wins54%league 47%
AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25A · Heracles2–15
- W4 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–04
- W26 Nov 23H · FC Volendam3–00
Utrecht5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L20 Sep 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- W20 Apr 25H · Ajax4–01
- W12 Jan 25A · Feyenoord2–11
- W24 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–11
- D28 Oct 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar9 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Utrecht9 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
