AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 5.2 days of rest, Willem II 6 and had to travel 122 km.
Away travel122 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
AZ Alkmaar86%
Draw9%
Willem II5%
AZ Alkmaar75%
Draw16%
Willem II9%
AZ Alkmaar86%
Draw9%
Willem II5%
AZ Alkmaar80%
Draw12%
Willem II7%
AZ Alkmaar85%
Draw10%
Willem II5%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 40
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
52
AttackIn forecast
10
49
DefenceIn forecast
9
90
Form indexContext
9
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWillem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarWillem II
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.25
3.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
100%
Scored inContext
75%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.40
ShotsContext
12.50
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
41%
On target shareContext
20%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
63%
Box shareContext
70%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.80
Shots allowedContext
16.50
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.75
2.75
BlocksContext
3.50
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
64%
Save rateContext
58%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
505
PassesContext
339
433
Accurate passesContext
257
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.52
11.00
FoulsContext
10.75
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.00
ShotsContext
11.00
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
37%
On target shareContext
29%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
63%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.50
Shots allowedContext
16.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.25
BlocksContext
3.88
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
70%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
477
PassesContext
375
403
Accurate passesContext
294
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.40
FoulsContext
10.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
WWWWW
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 90 · 15 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · +5.6 vs expected
Willem II
LLDL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 1 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Willem II |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 122 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 173 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
4L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners
8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
21D. Kwakman
14C. Stengs
9M. Meerdink
Willem II
Confirmed XI
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
6C. Twigt
7J. Slory
19U. van Aalst
22P. van Loon
9D. Haen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Willem II
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Willem II+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Willem II · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 5–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws1 Willem II wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 2 Feb 2025Willem II0–2AZ Alkmaar
- 10 Nov 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2Willem II
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 3.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 4.25 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 9.75 | 10.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 1.75 | 2.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.78 | 10.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.30league 2.68
Red cards0.28league 0.07
Cards 5+15%league 14%
Fouls18.6league 21.0
Penalties0.30league 0.25
Home wins40%league 25%
AZ Alkmaar2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D24 Apr 25H · NAC Breda1–10
- W10 Aug 24A · Almere City FC1–03
Willem II1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Apr 25A · Heerenveen1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar5 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Willem II4 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
2
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
6
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
8
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
