Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 27). Barcelona usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 6.8 days of rest, Oviedo 7.9 and had to travel 693 km.
Away travel693 kmRest days6.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona88%
Draw9%
Oviedo3%
Barcelona87%
Draw9%
Oviedo4%
Barcelona88%
Draw9%
Oviedo3%
Barcelona83%
Draw12%
Oviedo5%
Barcelona88%
Draw9%
Oviedo3%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 35
Team strength
Barcelona
Oviedo
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
97
AttackIn forecast
23
92
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaOviedo
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.55
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
2.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
100%
Scored inContext
35%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
19.65
ShotsContext
9.15
7.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.85
37%
On target shareContext
31%
12.15
Shots in the boxContext
5.68
63%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
2.53
OffsidesContext
2.39
9.35
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
2.76
BlocksContext
3.60
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
69%
Save rateContext
77%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
632
PassesContext
383
565
Accurate passesContext
317
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.10
FoulsContext
12.50
11.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.15
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
90%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.90
ShotsContext
10.00
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
38%
On target shareContext
29%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
4%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.44
10.30
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.67
BlocksContext
2.30
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
64%
Save rateContext
80%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
620
PassesContext
397
549
Accurate passesContext
328
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.80
FoulsContext
13.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km803 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel693 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 693 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 803 km | 693 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
17Marc Casadó
21F. de Jong
11Raphinha
20Dani Olmo
10Lamine Yamal
9R. Lewandowski
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-0
- Scored
- 3.11
- Conceded
- 0.56
Oviedo · Away
0.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–4 A | L 0–4 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 46 of 57 · 2.42 per game | 13 of 57 · 0.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Barcelona wins0 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Sep 2025Oviedo1–3Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 0.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 65% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Barcelona | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 1.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.79 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 11.58 | 9.45 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 17/19 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 12/19 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 3.70 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Barcelona | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.13 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.63 | 8.90 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.30 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.19
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+43%league 47%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins49%league 47%
Barcelona2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W3 Feb 24A · Alaves3–12
- W22 Oct 23H · Athletic Club1–03
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona20 games · scored 54 · conceded 22
11
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
8
31-45
8
46-60
9
2
61-75
12
4
76-90
Oviedo19 games · scored 11 · conceded 31
3
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
9
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
