Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 4 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 11 and had to travel 504 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel504 kmRest days4 · 11Matches / 14d2 · 1
Barcelona84%
Draw10%
Rayo Vallecano6%
Barcelona74%
Draw17%
Rayo Vallecano10%
Barcelona84%
Draw10%
Rayo Vallecano6%
Barcelona79%
Draw13%
Rayo Vallecano8%
Barcelona83%
Draw11%
Rayo Vallecano6%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
Warm
25°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 38
Team strength
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
97
AttackIn forecast
61
92
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
4.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
-0.81
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
7.00
8.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
52%
On target shareContext
43%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
86%
Box shareContext
73%
21%
ConversionContext
14%
5.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
6.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
3.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
100%
Save rateContext
57%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
577
PassesContext
329
512
Accurate passesContext
250
89%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.49
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.50
FoulsContext
16.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
44%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
73%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
8.70
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.25
BlocksContext
3.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
78%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
635
PassesContext
387
574
Accurate passesContext
311
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.30
FoulsContext
15.90
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
WW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 27 Aug | 11La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 850 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart
15A. Christensen
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
22Marc Bernal
17A. Gordon
20Dani Olmo
10Lamine Yamal
11Raphinha
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
1Dani Cárdenas(G)
33Jozhua Vertrouwd
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
36G. Bouare
23Óscar Valentín
18Álvaro García
8Unai López
19Jorge de Frutos
10Sergio Camello
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Barcelona wins3 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.70
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 22 Mar 2026Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 31 Aug 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona
- 17 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 27 Aug 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Barcelona
- 19 May 2024Barcelona3–0Rayo Vallecano
- 25 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.60 | 4.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.50 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.00 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 5.50 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 4.34
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+39%league 45%
Fouls24.1league 25.9
Penalties0.34league 0.34
Home wins45%league 52%
Barcelona2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W25 Apr 26A · Getafe2–02
- W6 Dec 25A · Real Betis5–32
Rayo Vallecano4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W9 May 25A · Las Palmas1–03
- L5 May 24H · Almeria0–13
- L5 Feb 24H · Sevilla1–22
- D27 Sep 23A · Cadiz0–07
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona2 games · scored 7 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
6
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
