Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Betis. Barcelona had 4 days of rest, Real Betis 5.1 and had to travel 828 km.
Away travel828 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Barcelona65%
Draw21%
Real Betis14%
Barcelona69%
Draw19%
Real Betis12%
Barcelona65%
Draw21%
Real Betis14%
Barcelona58%
Draw24%
Real Betis19%
Barcelona64%
Draw21%
Real Betis15%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 44
Team strength
Barcelona
Real Betis
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
97
AttackIn forecast
79
92
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaReal Betis
2.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
97%
Scored inContext
89%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
18.25
ShotsContext
13.94
6.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.72
36%
On target shareContext
34%
11.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
66%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.23
8.69
Shots allowedContext
11.78
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.22
BlocksContext
3.06
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
75%
Save rateContext
74%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
640
PassesContext
461
576
Accurate passesContext
392
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.81
FoulsContext
10.64
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.81
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.10
6.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
39%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
69%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.25
7.80
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
1.78
BlocksContext
2.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
82%
Save rateContext
77%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
620
PassesContext
476
562
Accurate passesContext
406
91%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.10
FoulsContext
11.60
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km861 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel828 km1,482 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May | 5.1La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 828 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 861 km | 1,482 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
24Eric García
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
22Marc Bernal
6Gavi
16Fermín López
9R. Lewandowski
11Raphinha
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
2Héctor Bellerín
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
15Álvaro Fidalgo
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
7Antony
20G. Lo Celso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Real Betis-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 18-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Real Betis · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-9-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–5 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Getafe | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 88 of 105 · 2.51 per game | 57 of 105 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Barcelona wins2 draws1 Real Betis wins
Goals per game2.80 – 1.30
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 6 Dec 2025Real Betis3–5Barcelona
- 5 Apr 2025Barcelona1–1Real Betis
- 7 Dec 2024Real Betis2–2Barcelona
- 21 Jan 2024Real Betis2–4Barcelona
- 16 Sep 2023Barcelona5–0Real Betis
- 29 Apr 2023Barcelona4–0Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.53 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.42 | 2.78 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 11% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Barcelona | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.66 | 4.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 11.09 | 9.25 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 28/35 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 66% 23/35 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 51% 18/35 | 26% 9/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.61 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.47 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 17/36 | 64% 23/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 13/36 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Barcelona | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.80 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.50 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.26
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls25.6league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.35
Home wins45%league 48%
Barcelona3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 Sep 25H · Valencia6–00
- W13 May 24H · Real Sociedad2–02
- W20 Dec 23H · Almeria3–23
Real Betis5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 3.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Apr 26H · Espanyol0–01
- D10 Jan 26A · Oviedo1–11
- W4 May 25A · Espanyol2–10
- W25 Feb 24H · Athletic Club3–11
- W13 Jan 24H · Granada CF1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona36 games · scored 91 · conceded 32
16
5
0-15
10
4
16-30
17
11
31-45
13
2
46-60
15
3
61-75
20
7
76-90
Real Betis36 games · scored 56 · conceded 44
5
10
0-15
11
6
16-30
9
9
31-45
10
6
46-60
10
5
61-75
11
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
