Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 55). Barcelona usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 14 days of rest, Valencia 16 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days14 · 16Matches / 14d1 · 0
Barcelona74%
Draw17%
Valencia9%
Barcelona73%
Draw17%
Valencia9%
Barcelona74%
Draw17%
Valencia9%
Barcelona68%
Draw20%
Valencia13%
Barcelona73%
Draw17%
Valencia9%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 27
Team strength
Barcelona
Valencia
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
97
AttackIn forecast
39
92
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaValencia
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
20.33
ShotsContext
9.67
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
33%
On target shareContext
24%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
59%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
BlocksContext
4.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
77%
Save rateContext
75%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
583
PassesContext
384
517
Accurate passesContext
316
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.30
ShotsContext
10.00
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
35%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
59%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.63
8.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
1.88
BlocksContext
3.10
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
81%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
650
PassesContext
445
582
Accurate passesContext
370
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.60
FoulsContext
11.10
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Valencia
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel302 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 16La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
23J. Koundé
17Marc Casadó
8Pedri
14M. Rashford
16Fermín López
28R. Bardghji
7Ferran Torres
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
3Copete
4M. Diakhaby
5César Tárrega
20D. Foulquier
22B. Santamaría
8Javi Guerra
16Diego López
7A. Danjuma
9Hugo Duro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Valencia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
No home games yet this season.
Valencia · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Barcelona wins2 draws0 Valencia wins
Goals per game2.80 – 1.10
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 26 Jan 2025Barcelona7–1Valencia
- 17 Aug 2024Valencia1–2Barcelona
- 29 Apr 2024Barcelona4–2Valencia
- 16 Dec 2023Valencia1–1Barcelona
- 5 Mar 2023Barcelona1–0Valencia
- 29 Oct 2022Valencia0–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Barcelona | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 12.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 3.33 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Barcelona | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.78 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 3.82
Red cards0.33league 0.23
Cards 5+59%league 38%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.41league 0.31
Home wins48%league 44%
Barcelona2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 May 24H · Real Sociedad2–02
- W20 Dec 23H · Almeria3–23
Valencia4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L19 May 24H · Girona1–32
- L10 Feb 24A · Las Palmas0–20
- L8 Dec 23A · Getafe0–15
- D22 May 21A · Huesca0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Valencia3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 26 · conceded 17
2
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
