Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Heidenheim – 8 Nov 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 8 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 5th · 17 pts · 9 played WWWWL

6–0Full time

1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 5 pts · 9 played WLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 28). Bayer Leverkusen usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayer Leverkusen had 6.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 346 km.

Away travel346 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Bayer Leverkusen79%

Draw14%

1. FC Heidenheim7%

Expected goals 2.75 – 0.75

Bayer Leverkusen77%

Draw16%

1. FC Heidenheim8%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.71

Bayer Leverkusen78%

Draw14%

1. FC Heidenheim7%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.74

Bayer Leverkusen72%

Draw17%

1. FC Heidenheim10%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.84

Bayer Leverkusen77%

Draw15%

1. FC Heidenheim8%

Expected goals 2.56 – 0.71

Over 2.5 68% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 68

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Heidenheim

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

87 AttackIn forecast 48

79 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Heidenheim

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.89

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

89% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.78 ShotsContext 11.44

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

37% On target shareContext 36%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

65% Box shareContext 62%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.33 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

3.00 BlocksContext 3.22

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

64% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 41%

568 PassesContext 335

501 Accurate passesContext 257

88% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.44 FoulsContext 10.11

11.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.90 ShotsContext 12.30

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

69% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.20 Shots allowedContext 14.80

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.70 BlocksContext 3.10

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

63% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 42%

558 PassesContext 350

495 Accurate passesContext 273

89% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.20 FoulsContext 10.20

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km923 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel346 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	346 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	923 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Flekken(G)

12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 8R. Andrich

20Álex Grimaldo 24Aleix García 30I. Maza 13Arthur

19E. Poku 7J. Hofmann

14P. Schick

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

41D. Ramaj(G)

19J. Föhrenbach 4T. Siersleben 6P. Mainka 23O. Traoré

16J. Niehues 3J. Schöppner 2M. Busch

17M. Honsak 22A. Ibrahimović

11B. Zivzivadze

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen+0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
1. FC Heidenheim-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 0.80

1. FC Heidenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Werder Bremen	D 3–3 A	D 2–2 H
1899 Hoffenheim	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

5 Apr 20251. FC Heidenheim0–1Bayer Leverkusen
23 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–21. FC Heidenheim
17 Feb 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2Bayer Leverkusen
24 Sep 2023Bayer Leverkusen4–11. FC Heidenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.89
Conceded per game	1.56	1.89
Match goals	3.56	2.78	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	67%	56%	68%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	11%	33%
Games	9	9

	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.89
Conceded per game	1.56	1.89
Match goals	3.56	2.78	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	67%	56%	68%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	11%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	5.00
Corners conceded	5.67	3.67
Match total	9.34	8.67	9.78
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.67	1.67
Opponent cards	3.22	2.89
Match total	5.89	4.56	4.35
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Bayer Leverkusen	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	5.10
Corners conceded	5.33	3.70
Match total	8.77	8.80	9.78
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.70
Opponent cards	2.80	2.80
Match total	5.20	4.50	4.35
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 4.15

Red cards0.16league 0.22

Cards 5+32%league 41%

Fouls24.3league 22.5

Penalties0.22league 0.35

Home wins49%league 43%

Bayer Leverkusen4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D12 Apr 25H · Union Berlin0–02
D25 Jan 25A · RB Leipzig2–22
W23 Nov 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim5–20
W25 Sep 21H · FSV Mainz 051–04

1. FC Heidenheim6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

W29 Mar 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–04
L18 Jan 25H · FC St. Pauli0–21
L23 Nov 24A · Bayer Leverkusen2–50
W28 Apr 24A · SV Darmstadt 981–01
D2 Feb 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.