Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

2–0Full time

Celje

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celje. Bayer Leverkusen had 4.2 days of rest, Celje 21 and had to travel 808 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel808 kmRest days4.2 · 21Matches / 14d2 · 0

Bayer Leverkusen82%

Draw11%

Celje7%

Expected goals 3.12 – 0.82

Bayer Leverkusen79%

Draw14%

Celje7%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.68

Bayer Leverkusen82%

Draw11%

Celje7%

Expected goals 3.08 – 0.82

Bayer Leverkusen76%

Draw14%

Celje10%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.91

Bayer Leverkusen81%

Draw12%

Celje7%

Expected goals 2.96 – 0.78

Over 2.5 75% Both score 53% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

16°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 84%

RefereeJasper Vergoote

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 62

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

Celje

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

87 AttackIn forecast 17

79 DefenceIn forecast 19

48 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celje

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

Celje

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

100% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.60 ShotsContext 11.00

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

33% On target shareContext 42%

14.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

69% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 15%

1.67 OffsidesContext 3.00

13.20 Shots allowedContext 16.50

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

3.30 BlocksContext 4.43

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

64% Save rateContext 68%

60% PossessionIn forecast 56%

554 PassesContext 492

491 Accurate passesContext 418

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.20 FoulsContext 14.29

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.57

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen LWD

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km816 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

D12 SepA · FC Augsburg2–21.5 xPts
W5 SepH · Union Berlin4–02.1 xPts
L29 AugA · SV Elversberg2–31.9 xPts

Celje

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel808 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	Celje
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep	21UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	808 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	816 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	28.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Flekken(G)

2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 17Lucas Vázquez

24Aleix García 8R. Andrich

19M. Diaby 10M. Tillman 11M. Terrier

14P. Schick

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Celje Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ž. Leban(G)

11M. Avdyli 6A. Tutyškinas 44Ł. Bejger 2P. Širvys

19M. Zabukovnik 14L. Tičić

7B. Verbič 10S. Sešlar 91Y. Dukuly

47A. Kučys

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celje Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Celje-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home No home games yet this season.

Celje · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	Celje	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.94
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	75%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Bayer Leverkusen	Celje	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	4.00	3.00	3.94
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	75%
Over 3.5	60%	17%
Both teams scored	80%	83%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	17%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	Celje	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Bayer Leverkusen	Celje	League
Corners
Corners won	8.22	5.33
Corners conceded	3.22	7.33
Match total	11.44	12.66	13.50
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	100% 6/6
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.90
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	3.40	4.80	2.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.40league 2.00

Red cards0.27league 0.00

Cards 5+26%league 0%

Fouls22.6league 25.0

Penalties0.39league 0.00

Home wins48%league 50%

Bayer Leverkusen

No previous matches with this referee.

Celje

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.