Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Jul 30 · 20:00
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,782 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Benfica—%
Draw—%
FC ST. Gallen—%
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 74
Team strength
Benfica
FC ST. Gallen
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
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82
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
81
AttackIn forecast
25
81
DefenceIn forecast
27
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC ST. Gallen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaFC ST. Gallen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
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Red cardsContext
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2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
2.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.19
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.11
ShotsContext
13.67
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
33%
On target shareContext
36%
12.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
76%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.44
Shots allowedContext
17.89
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.67
2.56
BlocksContext
3.25
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.63
82%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
438
PassesContext
438
367
Accurate passesContext
347
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.78
FoulsContext
13.89
14.89
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,563 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
FC ST. Gallen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,782 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
FC ST. Gallen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,782 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,563 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
4António Silva
6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea
18L. Barreiro
13J. Kamiński
10H. Sudakov
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
FC ST. Gallen
Confirmed XI
25L. Watkowiak(G)
36C. Okoroji
4J. Stanić
26T. Gaal
64M. Stevanovic
11C. Boukhalfa
10L. Daschner
16L. Görtler
28H. Vandermersch
7C. Witzig
14A. Baldé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC ST. Gallen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
No home games yet this season.
FC ST. Gallen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Benfica wins0 draws1 FC ST. Gallen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Jul 2026FC ST. Gallen2–1Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | FC ST. Gallen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Benfica | FC ST. Gallen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | FC ST. Gallen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Benfica | FC ST. Gallen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.33 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 6.75 | |
| Match total | 12.44 | 11.88 | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.60 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.52
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+30%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 28.0
Penalties0.27league 0.14
Home wins47%league 45%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
FC ST. GallenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FC ST. Gallen1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
7
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
FC ST. Gallen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
6
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.