Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 6 · 20:00
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,966 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Benfica—%
Draw—%
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
RefereeMarian Barbu
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 21
Team strength
Benfica
Heart Of Midlothian
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
81
AttackIn forecast
37
81
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeart Of Midlothian
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaHeart Of Midlothian
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
—
50%
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
2.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.50
ShotsContext
15.20
5.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
31%
12.38
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
76%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.38
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.50
BlocksContext
3.44
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
82%
Save rateContext
58%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
438
PassesContext
401
367
Accurate passesContext
310
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.88
FoulsContext
10.40
14.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,966 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Heart Of Midlothian |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 30 Jul | 9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,966 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea
18L. Barreiro
27Rafa
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed XI
1B. Reus(G)
18Harry Milne
17S. Findlay
6O. McEntee
23J. Altena
89A. Kyziridis
16B. Spittal
78L. Mendy
7C. Miller
11P. Kabore
10Cláudio Braga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heart Of Midlothian
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Heart Of Midlothian · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | — | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 2 | 0 |
| Benfica | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | — | |
| Match total | 3.50 | — | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | — | |
| Benfica | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.63 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.88 | 10.78 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marian Barbu 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.69
Red cards0.05league 0.19
Cards 5+24%league 40%
Fouls25.4league 28.6
Penalties0.33league 0.17
Home wins29%league 48%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
Heart Of MidlothianNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Heart Of MidlothianBenfica10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
8
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian9 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.