Besiktas vs Alanyaspor – 8 Feb 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 21 Sun, Feb 8 · 17:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 5th · 36 pts · 20 played DWWDW

2–2Full time

Alanyaspor 10th · 22 pts · 20 played DWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas were slight favourites.

Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 21). Besiktas had 8 days of rest, Alanyaspor 8.2 and had to travel 563 km.

Away travel563 kmRest days8 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Besiktas58%

Draw23%

Alanyaspor19%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.03

Besiktas57%

Draw24%

Alanyaspor19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Besiktas58%

Draw23%

Alanyaspor19%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.00

Besiktas50%

Draw25%

Alanyaspor25%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.15

Besiktas57%

Draw24%

Alanyaspor20%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.01

Over 2.5 56% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 15

Team strength

Besiktas

Alanyaspor

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

60 AttackIn forecast 18

48 DefenceIn forecast 24

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alanyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Besiktas

Alanyaspor

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 70%

25% Clean sheetsContext 35%

16.00 ShotsContext 12.15

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

39% On target shareContext 32%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

69% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.73

12.30 Shots allowedContext 10.15

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.85

3.16 BlocksContext 2.64

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

71% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

419 PassesContext 397

346 Accurate passesContext 333

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.75 FoulsContext 12.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

100% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

18.30 ShotsContext 13.50

7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

40% On target shareContext 30%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

61% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.00 Shots allowedContext 9.40

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.50 BlocksContext 2.38

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

73% Save rateContext 71%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

429 PassesContext 426

353 Accurate passesContext 371

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.80 FoulsContext 11.30

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alanyaspor

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel563 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Alanyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan	8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	563 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

30E. Destanoğlu(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 25G. Sazdagi

4O. Ndidi

11C. Ünder 10O. Kökçü 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

9H. Oh

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Alanyaspor Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

48Paulo Victor(G)

50Ü. Akdağ 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 17N. Janvier 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj

16U. Hwang 14I. Hagi

10G. Yalçın

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alanyaspor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alanyaspor+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 2.00points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-2
Scored: 1.70
Conceded: 1.20

Alanyaspor · Away 1.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-7-2
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 1.30

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Besiktas	Alanyaspor
Konyaspor	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
Eyüpspor	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Kayserispor	W 1–0 HW 4–0 A	D 0–0 A
Rizespor	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H
Trabzonspor	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Samsunspor	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Antalyaspor	W 3–1 A	D 0–0 H
Fenerbahce	L 2–3 H	L 2–3 HD 2–2 A
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Galatasaray	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Kocaelispor	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
Goztepe	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	36 of 57 · 1.89 per game	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Besiktas wins3 draws2 Alanyaspor wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.60 Over 2.520% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

31 Aug 2025Alanyaspor2–0Besiktas
18 May 2025Alanyaspor1–1Besiktas
21 Dec 2024Besiktas1–1Alanyaspor
12 May 2024Alanyaspor1–1Besiktas
21 Dec 2023Besiktas1–3Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	1.00
Conceded per game	1.25	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.10	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	35%	56%
Over 3.5	35%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	55%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	20	20

	Besiktas	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.00	2.94
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.68	4.82
Corners conceded	4.47	3.76
Match total	10.15	8.58	9.32
Over 8.5	68% 13/19	47% 8/17
Over 9.5	53% 10/19	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	37% 7/19	41% 7/17
Cards
Cards	2.45	2.25
Opponent cards	2.95	1.85
Match total	5.40	4.10	4.65
Over 3.5	85% 17/20	50% 10/20
Over 4.5	55% 11/20	35% 7/20

	Besiktas	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	5.70
Corners conceded	3.50	3.00
Match total	8.90	8.70	9.32
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.40
Opponent cards	3.40	1.20
Match total	5.80	3.60	4.65
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.27league 4.40

Red cards0.20league 0.23

Cards 5+33%league 45%

Fouls25.6league 25.9

Penalties0.47league 0.26

Home wins40%league 36%

Besiktas1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L18 Oct 25H · Genclerbirligi1–22

Alanyaspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D8 Dec 25H · Antalyaspor0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.