Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Besiktas
4th · 55 pts · 30 played
WWLWL
0–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 20 pts · 30 played
WLWLL
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Besiktas had 8.1 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 9.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Besiktas66%
Draw20%
Fatih Karagümrük14%
Besiktas69%
Draw19%
Fatih Karagümrük12%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Fatih Karagümrük13%
Besiktas59%
Draw23%
Fatih Karagümrük18%
Besiktas65%
Draw21%
Fatih Karagümrük14%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 16
Team strength
BesiktasFatih Karagümrük
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
60
AttackIn forecast
13
48
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasFatih Karagümrük
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
87%
Scored inContext
60%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.80
ShotsContext
10.20
6.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.39
38%
On target shareContext
31%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
66%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.46
11.50
Shots allowedContext
13.53
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.66
2.93
BlocksContext
3.04
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
71%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
423
PassesContext
365
350
Accurate passesContext
288
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.63
FoulsContext
13.20
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.40
ShotsContext
10.80
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
60%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.90
9.90
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.50
BlocksContext
2.50
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
430
PassesContext
378
358
Accurate passesContext
301
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.40
FoulsContext
12.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 9.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
32D. Vásquez(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
12E. Agbadou
22T. Bulut
4O. Ndidi
19E. Touré
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
7M. Rashica
9H. Oh
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
72Baris Kalayci
6B. Elmaz
8B. Özcan
88T. Ahmed
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
2.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-3
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.20
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-12
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–2 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–1 AL 2–3 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 52 of 87 · 1.79 per game | 20 of 87 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Besiktas wins0 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Fatih Karagümrük0–2Besiktas
- 13 Jan 2024Besiktas3–0Fatih Karagümrük
- 14 Aug 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–1Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 40% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Besiktas | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.76 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.34 | 5.24 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 18/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 12/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.13 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.53 | 4.00 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 24/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 27% 8/30 | |
| Besiktas | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.67 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.70 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.63league 4.46
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+38%league 46%
Fouls26.2league 26.1
Penalties0.44league 0.29
Home wins38%league 41%
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W19 Mar 26H · Kasimpasa2–13
- W31 Jan 26H · Konyaspor2–13
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Feb 26A · Kasimpasa2–32
- L22 Aug 25H · Goztepe0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas30 games · scored 54 · conceded 36
12
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
8
46-60
7
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük30 games · scored 27 · conceded 53
3
5
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
15
61-75
9
7
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
