Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Besiktas. Besiktas had 7.2 days of rest, Galatasaray 7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Besiktas38%
Draw25%
Galatasaray37%
Besiktas28%
Draw27%
Galatasaray45%
Besiktas39%
Draw25%
Galatasaray36%
Besiktas31%
Draw24%
Galatasaray45%
Besiktas38%
Draw26%
Galatasaray36%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
Besiktas
Galatasaray
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
60
AttackIn forecast
57
48
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasGalatasaray
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.42
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
92%
Scored inContext
88%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
15.58
ShotsContext
16.21
6.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.71
39%
On target shareContext
35%
10.21
Shots in the boxContext
11.63
68%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.79
Shots allowedContext
9.29
3.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.09
BlocksContext
2.67
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
71%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
418
PassesContext
507
344
Accurate passesContext
446
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.79
FoulsContext
12.08
12.04
Fouls sufferedContext
9.96
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.60
ShotsContext
13.70
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
41%
On target shareContext
41%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
59%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
19%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.30
BlocksContext
3.10
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
70%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
424
PassesContext
524
347
Accurate passesContext
462
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.50
FoulsContext
11.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
14O. Uduokhai
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
4O. Ndidi
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
23K. Asllani
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Galatasaray+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.17
Galatasaray · Away
2.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-2
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 0.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 45 of 69 · 1.96 per game | 57 of 69 · 2.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Besiktas wins1 draws3 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 4 Oct 2025Galatasaray1–1Besiktas
- 29 Mar 2025Besiktas2–1Galatasaray
- 28 Oct 2024Galatasaray2–1Besiktas
- 3 Mar 2024Besiktas0–1Galatasaray
- 21 Oct 2023Galatasaray2–1Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 2.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.17 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 54% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 13% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Besiktas | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.48 | 5.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.26 | 3.41 | |
| Match total | 9.74 | 8.73 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 14/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.83 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 5.21 | 4.16 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 19/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 13/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Besiktas | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.56 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 4.60 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.41
Red cards0.31league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 45%
Fouls23.6league 25.9
Penalties0.13league 0.25
Home wins63%league 38%
Besiktas4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Goztepe4–02
- W19 Jan 26H · Kayserispor1–02
- W22 Oct 25A · Konyaspor2–03
- D19 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–11
Galatasaray4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Feb 26A · Rizespor3–01
- W22 Nov 25H · Genclerbirligi3–24
- W15 Aug 25H · Fatih Karagümrük3–00
- W3 May 25H · Sivasspor4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas24 games · scored 45 · conceded 29
9
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
9
5
31-45
7
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Galatasaray24 games · scored 58 · conceded 18
9
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
12
5
61-75
13
5
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 26 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
