Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 11). Besiktas usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Besiktas had 13.9 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 14.1 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days13.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Besiktas68%
Draw20%
Genclerbirligi12%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Genclerbirligi13%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Genclerbirligi13%
Besiktas60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Genclerbirligi13%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Besiktas
Genclerbirligi
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
60
AttackIn forecast
13
48
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasGenclerbirligi
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
71%
Scored inContext
75%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
14.43
ShotsContext
9.00
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
39%
On target shareContext
35%
11.29
Shots in the boxContext
4.88
79%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.71
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
2.17
BlocksContext
4.80
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
60%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
408
PassesContext
295
338
Accurate passesContext
231
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.67
14.57
FoulsContext
13.00
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
75%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.80
ShotsContext
9.00
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
37%
On target shareContext
35%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.88
77%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.20
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.25
BlocksContext
4.80
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
68%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
461
PassesContext
295
386
Accurate passesContext
231
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.40
FoulsContext
13.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.25
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1F. Günok(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
2J. Svensson
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
18V. Černý
27Rafa
11C. Ünder
9T. Abraham
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
18E. Erentürk(G)
23M. Hanousek
2T. da Silva
6D. Goutas
4Žan Žužek
13Pedro Pereira
70F. Tongya
15A. Dele-Bashiru
35O. Ülgün
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genclerbirligi-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.38 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 25% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Besiktas | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.38 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 25% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 10.71 | 9.29 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.28 | 4.63 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Besiktas | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.29 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.63 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.14league 4.68
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+29%league 54%
Fouls24.3league 27.0
Penalties0.57league 0.31
Home wins57%league 37%
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas7 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi8 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Genclerbirligi8 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
