Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas had 7 days of rest, Goztepe 7.1 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Besiktas56%
Draw24%
Goztepe20%
Besiktas48%
Draw26%
Goztepe26%
Besiktas55%
Draw24%
Goztepe20%
Besiktas48%
Draw26%
Goztepe26%
Besiktas55%
Draw24%
Goztepe21%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
Besiktas
Goztepe
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
60
AttackIn forecast
39
48
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasGoztepe
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
91%
Scored inContext
73%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
59%
15.95
ShotsContext
13.18
6.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
39%
On target shareContext
33%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
68%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.42
OffsidesContext
1.74
12.14
Shots allowedContext
11.91
3.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.48
3.05
BlocksContext
3.67
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
69%
Save rateContext
85%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
418
PassesContext
246
346
Accurate passesContext
170
83%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.73
FoulsContext
16.82
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
9.14
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.20
ShotsContext
13.30
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
34%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.40
BlocksContext
3.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
82%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
437
PassesContext
250
362
Accurate passesContext
172
83%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.90
FoulsContext
16.90
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
4O. Ndidi
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
23K. Asllani
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
77O. Bayrak
10F. Krastev
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Goztepe-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.27
Goztepe · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 0.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 40 of 63 · 1.90 per game | 38 of 63 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Besiktas wins1 draws2 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 19 Sep 2025Goztepe3–0Besiktas
- 19 Apr 2025Goztepe1–1Besiktas
- 24 Nov 2024Besiktas2–4Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 1.77 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 32% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 36% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 59% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 27% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Besiktas | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.82 | |
| Match total | 9.81 | 9.41 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 5.41 | 4.82 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 19/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 13/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Besiktas | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.60 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.20 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 4.48
Red cards0.33league 0.22
Cards 5+40%league 47%
Fouls23.1league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.26
Home wins60%league 38%
Besiktas3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Jan 26H · Kayserispor1–02
- W22 Oct 25A · Konyaspor2–03
- D19 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–11
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Apr 25H · Besiktas1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas22 games · scored 40 · conceded 29
8
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
8
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Goztepe22 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
