Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas had 4 days of rest, Kasimpasa 4.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days4 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Besiktas70%
Draw19%
Kasimpasa11%
Besiktas64%
Draw21%
Kasimpasa15%
Besiktas69%
Draw20%
Kasimpasa11%
Besiktas62%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa15%
Besiktas68%
Draw20%
Kasimpasa12%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
Besiktas
Kasimpasa
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
60
AttackIn forecast
21
48
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasKasimpasa
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.85
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
88%
Scored inContext
62%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
16.04
ShotsContext
9.62
6.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.87
38%
On target shareContext
26%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.96
67%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.48
OffsidesContext
1.95
11.69
Shots allowedContext
11.65
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.04
BlocksContext
3.46
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
72%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
422
PassesContext
330
349
Accurate passesContext
256
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.54
FoulsContext
15.65
11.85
Fouls sufferedContext
12.77
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
90%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.20
ShotsContext
7.90
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.56
37%
On target shareContext
29%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
60%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
2.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.70
BlocksContext
4.22
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
73%
Save rateContext
65%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
457
PassesContext
335
382
Accurate passesContext
259
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.62
11.50
FoulsContext
17.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 4.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
14O. Uduokhai
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
4O. Ndidi
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
23K. Asllani
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
22K. Çörekçi
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
8Cafú
18J. Allevinah
34F. Diabaté
12A. Ben Ouanes
19A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kasimpasa-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 1.15
Kasimpasa · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 48 of 75 · 1.92 per game | 23 of 75 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Besiktas wins2 draws3 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Kasimpasa1–1Besiktas
- 7 Apr 2025Kasimpasa1–1Besiktas
- 2 Nov 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa
- 26 May 2024Kasimpasa2–1Besiktas
- 5 Jan 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 0.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.23 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 42% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Besiktas | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.72 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.96 | 8.83 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.04 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 5.39 | 4.81 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 21/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 14/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Besiktas | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.50 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.30 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 4.39
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+31%league 44%
Fouls25.6league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.26
Home wins38%league 38%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W31 Jan 26H · Konyaspor2–13
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Feb 26H · Fatih Karagümrük3–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas26 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
9
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
9
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Kasimpasa26 games · scored 22 · conceded 36
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
4
11
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
