Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Besiktas. Besiktas had 5 days of rest, Kocaelispor 8.1 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days5 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Besiktas52%
Draw25%
Kocaelispor23%
Besiktas53%
Draw25%
Kocaelispor22%
Besiktas54%
Draw24%
Kocaelispor22%
Besiktas45%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor29%
Besiktas51%
Draw25%
Kocaelispor23%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Besiktas
Kocaelispor
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
60
AttackIn forecast
16
48
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasKocaelispor
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.67
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
36%
On target shareContext
33%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
75%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
5%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.60
Shots allowedContext
13.17
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.50
BlocksContext
3.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
61%
Save rateContext
68%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
442
PassesContext
319
371
Accurate passesContext
242
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.59
13.80
FoulsContext
13.67
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.33
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.80
ShotsContext
9.67
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
38%
On target shareContext
33%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
74%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
5%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.17
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.83
BlocksContext
3.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
73%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
516
PassesContext
319
442
Accurate passesContext
242
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.59
12.50
FoulsContext
13.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.33
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,881 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Sep | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,881 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1F. Günok(G)
39D. Jurásek
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
25G. Sazdağı
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
19E. Touré
27Rafa
18V. Černý
9T. Abraham
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
3Muharrem Cinan
34O. Syrota
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
8H. Keïta
14Show
17D. Churlinov
75T. Bingöl
99R. Rivas
9B. Petković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Kocaelispor+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kocaelispor · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 17% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 17% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.80 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.66 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.80 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.66 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 4.62
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+83%league 50%
Fouls24.7league 26.5
Penalties1.00league 0.25
Home wins50%league 37%
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas5 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Kocaelispor6 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Kocaelispor6 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
