Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas had 21 days of rest, Kocaelispor 22.1 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days21 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Besiktas68%
Draw18%
Kocaelispor14%
Besiktas61%
Draw22%
Kocaelispor17%
Besiktas66%
Draw19%
Kocaelispor15%
Besiktas60%
Draw21%
Kocaelispor19%
Besiktas66%
Draw19%
Kocaelispor15%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAbdullah Bugra Taskinsoy
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Besiktas
Kocaelispor
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
60
AttackIn forecast
16
48
DefenceIn forecast
32
81
Form indexContext
77
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasKocaelispor
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
83%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.67
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
31%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
57%
Box shareContext
54%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.40
OffsidesContext
1.60
8.60
Shots allowedContext
16.83
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
59%
Save rateContext
86%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
495
PassesContext
412
428
Accurate passesContext
338
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.20
FoulsContext
11.83
16.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.66
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.83
ShotsContext
9.60
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
38%
On target shareContext
25%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
60%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.40
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.17
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
60%
Save rateContext
81%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
500
PassesContext
410
433
Accurate passesContext
339
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.63
FoulsContext
13.00
15.63
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
WWWWL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 12 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
Kocaelispor
WWWLW
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 77 · 12 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 22.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard
10O. Kökçü
21F. Miretti
18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
11Gonçalo Sousa
14Show
5E. Ortakaya
41Onur Öztonga
22U. Yıldız
75T. Bingöl
10B. Kutlu
20Mahamadou Susoho
7Daniel Agyei
26Metehan Altunbaş
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.15 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+2.1 pp
- Draw-1.1 pp
- Kocaelispor-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Kocaelispor · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Amed | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Besiktas wins0 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 28 Feb 2026Kocaelispor0–1Besiktas
- 29 Sep 2025Besiktas3–1Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.83 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.60 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 10% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.80 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.83 | 3.16 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.75 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.70 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.97
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 43%
Fouls22.2league 24.4
Penalties0.33league 0.33
Home wins33%league 44%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W1 May 26A · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–00
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas6 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Kocaelispor6 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
