Besiktas vs Marseille – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas

4–1Full time

Marseille

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Besiktas. Besiktas had 6.1 days of rest, Marseille 6 and had to travel 1,953 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,953 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Besiktas47%

Draw23%

Marseille29%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.31

Besiktas45%

Draw25%

Marseille29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Besiktas49%

Draw23%

Marseille28%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.26

Besiktas39%

Draw24%

Marseille36%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.47

Besiktas46%

Draw24%

Marseille29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.25

Over 2.5 59% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 86%

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 73

Team strength

Besiktas

Marseille

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

60 AttackIn forecast 48

48 DefenceIn forecast 46

76 Form indexContext 27

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Besiktas

Marseille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

0.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

80% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.25 ShotsContext 15.70

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

37% On target shareContext 38%

9.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

60% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 9%

3.75 OffsidesContext 1.71

8.25 Shots allowedContext 12.50

2.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.40 BlocksContext 3.22

1.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

56% Save rateContext 68%

62% PossessionIn forecast 58%

473 PassesContext 532

406 Accurate passesContext 466

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.71 FoulsContext 11.70

14.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas WLWWW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 76 · 12 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected

W11 SepH · Erzurumspor FK3–02.1 xPts
W5 SepA · Fenerbahce2–10.9 xPts
W31 AugH · Çorum FK6–21.9 xPts
L23 AugA · Alanyaspor0–11.7 xPts
W16 AugH · Eyüpspor1–02.1 xPts

Marseille WLLL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,953 km1,531 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 27 · 3 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -3.0 vs expected

L11 SepA · Rennes0–11.2 xPts
L6 SepH · Paris FC2–31.9 xPts
L30 AugA · Monaco0–21.2 xPts
W21 AugH · Strasbourg4–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Sep	6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,953 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,531 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Nübel(G)

11K. Ouattara 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

29I. Fakili 10O. Kökçü 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12J. de Lange(G)

25U. Garcia 13D. Cornelius 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

8H. Abdelli 23P. Højbjerg

77A. Harit 7A. Gomes 48K. Abdallah

11N. Maupay

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Marseille Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas-1.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Marseille+1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home No home games yet this season.

Marseille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.04
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Besiktas	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.40
Conceded per game	0.50	1.40
Match goals	2.40	2.80	3.04
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Besiktas	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.86	5.67
Corners conceded	4.14	4.33
Match total	12.00	10.00	10.70
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.10
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.20	4.00	3.10
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.63league 3.27

Red cards0.16league 0.00

Cards 5+52%league 45%

Fouls24.9league 25.0

Penalties0.16league 0.09

Home wins38%league 45%

Besiktas

No previous matches with this referee.

Marseille

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.