Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Rizespor. Besiktas had 6 days of rest, Rizespor 7.2 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days6 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Besiktas58%
Draw23%
Rizespor18%
Besiktas57%
Draw24%
Rizespor19%
Besiktas57%
Draw24%
Rizespor19%
Besiktas51%
Draw25%
Rizespor24%
Besiktas58%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 13
Team strength
Besiktas
Rizespor
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
60
AttackIn forecast
22
48
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasRizespor
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
88%
Scored inContext
75%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
14.69
ShotsContext
11.56
5.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
40%
On target shareContext
27%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.69
72%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.15
12.38
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
3.27
BlocksContext
3.87
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
400
PassesContext
392
329
Accurate passesContext
322
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.19
FoulsContext
14.44
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.69
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.20
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
41%
On target shareContext
28%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.40
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.38
3.80
BlocksContext
4.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
75%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
386
PassesContext
400
315
Accurate passesContext
333
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.40
FoulsContext
15.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rizespor
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 30 | 30 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
3G. de Abreu
22T. Bulut
5D. Tıknaz
17K. Yılmaz
7M. Rashica
10O. Kökçü
18V. Černý
9T. Abraham
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
1E. Canpolat(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
6G. Papanikolaou
50L. Augusto
10I. Olawoyin
20Q. Laçi
19J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Rizespor-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.57
Rizespor · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 5–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | L 2–5 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 48 · 1.63 per game | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Besiktas wins1 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 25 May 2025Besiktas1–2Rizespor
- 3 Jan 2025Rizespor1–1Besiktas
- 3 May 2024Besiktas3–2Rizespor
- 9 Jan 2024Rizespor0–4Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.69 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Besiktas | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.47 | 3.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 8.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 5.19 | 4.38 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 13/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Besiktas | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.11 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.20 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 4.44
Red cards0.15league 0.25
Cards 5+23%league 47%
Fouls27.2league 25.8
Penalties0.38league 0.27
Home wins23%league 34%
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Nov 25A · Antalyaspor3–11
- W1 Jun 25A · BB Bodrumspor4–00
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Nov 25H · Kayserispor0–12
- D27 Oct 25A · Samsunspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas16 games · scored 29 · conceded 22
7
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Rizespor16 games · scored 20 · conceded 23
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
7
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
