Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Besiktas had 14.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 13.9 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days14.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Besiktas43%
Draw26%
Samsunspor30%
Besiktas43%
Draw27%
Samsunspor30%
Besiktas43%
Draw27%
Samsunspor30%
Besiktas36%
Draw27%
Samsunspor37%
Besiktas43%
Draw27%
Samsunspor30%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 16
Team strength
Besiktas
Samsunspor
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
60
AttackIn forecast
15
48
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasSamsunspor
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.92
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
83%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.25
ShotsContext
13.42
5.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
38%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
75%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.17
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.73
BlocksContext
3.10
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
81%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
403
PassesContext
391
332
Accurate passesContext
321
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.42
FoulsContext
13.75
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.80
ShotsContext
13.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
38%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
75%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
2.78
BlocksContext
3.13
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
69%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
386
PassesContext
358
312
Accurate passesContext
286
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.90
FoulsContext
13.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdagi
8S. Uçan
4O. Ndidi
19E. Touré
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
9T. Abraham
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tomasson
4R. van Drongelen
24T. Borevković
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
6E. Aydin
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
19P. Ndiaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Samsunspor · Away
2.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Besiktas wins2 draws0 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 18 Jan 2025Besiktas0–0Samsunspor
- 11 Aug 2024Samsunspor0–2Besiktas
- 13 Apr 2024Besiktas1–1Samsunspor
- 26 Nov 2023Samsunspor1–2Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.92 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.42 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Besiktas | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 5.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.36 | 5.27 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 11.09 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 4.41 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Besiktas | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 11.11 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.00 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.06league 4.56
Red cards0.19league 0.27
Cards 5+75%league 50%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.44league 0.26
Home wins44%league 38%
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W1 Jun 25H · Kayserispor2–15
- L21 Apr 25A · Alanyaspor0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas12 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
7
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Samsunspor12 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
7
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
6
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
