Bodo/Glimt
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Tue, Aug 25 · 20:00
Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø
Bodo/Glimt
3rd · 3 pts · 1 played
W
First leg3–1
3–0Full time
NEC Nijmegen
13th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,779 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bodo/Glimt—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Weather (Bodø)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 200
Team strength
Bodo/GlimtNEC Nijmegen
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
61
AttackIn forecast
37
64
DefenceIn forecast
33
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bodo/GlimtNEC Nijmegen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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—
BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
2.56
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
-1.16
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.70
ShotsContext
19.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
52%
On target shareContext
31%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
75%
Box shareContext
62%
25%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.88
21.50
Shots allowedContext
9.60
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.78
BlocksContext
2.67
4.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
73%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
429
PassesContext
472
349
Accurate passesContext
384
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.33
FoulsContext
13.40
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bodo/Glimt
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,558 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bodo/Glimt |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 19 Aug | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 19 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,779 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,558 km | 123 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bodo/Glimt
Confirmed XI
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan
4O. Bjørtuft
2V. Nielsen
20F. Sjøvold
19S. Fet
7P. Berg
8S. Auklend
10J. Hauge
9A. Helmersen
11O. Blomberg
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
21T. Storm
2B. Pereira
10D. Tadić
20N. Lebreton
6D. Nejašmić
99Clement Bischoff
9T. Chery
30B. Linssen
14K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bodo/Glimt
Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Bodo/Glimt · Home
No home games yet this season.
NEC Nijmegen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Bodo/Glimt wins0 draws0 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Aug 2026NEC Nijmegen1–3Bodo/Glimt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bodo/Glimt | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Bodo/Glimt | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 90% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bodo/Glimt | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Bodo/Glimt | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.67 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 12.11 | 9.33 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 2.63
Red cards0.13league 0.25
Cards 5+35%league 13%
Fouls22.5league 23.4
Penalties0.21league 0.13
Home wins44%league 38%
Bodo/Glimt2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Oct 25A · Galatasaray1–31
- W10 Apr 25H · Lazio2–00
NEC NijmegenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bodo/Glimt1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.