Bodo/Glimt
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 17:00
Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø
Bodo/Glimt
19th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
First leg3–3
3–2Full time
Union St. Gilloise
20th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,909 kmRest days6.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bodo/Glimt—%
Draw—%
Union St. Gilloise—%
Weather (Bodø)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaIstvan Kovacs
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 31
Team strength
Bodo/GlimtUnion St. Gilloise
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
61
AttackIn forecast
62
64
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bodo/GlimtUnion St. Gilloise
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.86
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.10
ShotsContext
15.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
47%
On target shareContext
38%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
74%
Box shareContext
70%
20%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
20.50
Shots allowedContext
9.60
7.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
5.33
BlocksContext
3.00
5.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
73%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
421
PassesContext
407
343
Accurate passesContext
327
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.00
FoulsContext
9.78
10.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bodo/Glimt
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,819 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Union St. Gilloise
W
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,909 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
- W8 AugA · KVC Westerlo5–11.9 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bodo/Glimt |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 28 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 2.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,909 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,819 km | 96 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bodo/Glimt
Confirmed XI
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan
6J. Gundersen
4O. Bjørtuft
20F. Sjøvold
19S. Fet
7P. Berg
8S. Auklend
10J. Hauge
17O. Brynhildsen
11O. Blomberg
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
1V. Chambaere(G)
55Nikki Havenaar
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
6K. Van de Perre
23B. Zeneli
27L. Patris
28D. Olaru
12P. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bodo/Glimt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Bodo/Glimt · Home
No home games yet this season.
Union St. Gilloise · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Bodo/Glimt wins2 draws0 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 4 Aug 2026Union St. Gilloise3–3Bodo/Glimt
- 3 Oct 2024Union St. Gilloise0–0Bodo/Glimt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bodo/Glimt | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Bodo/Glimt | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bodo/Glimt | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.00 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Bodo/Glimt | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.11 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 8.89 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.70 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Istvan Kovacs Romania · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 4.27
Red cards0.23league 0.22
Cards 5+55%league 42%
Fouls25.3league 25.4
Penalties0.23league 0.33
Home wins42%league 51%
Bodo/GlimtNo previous matches with this referee.
Union St. GilloiseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bodo/Glimt1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
7
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.