Bologna vs Lazio – 24 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 24 · 17:30 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna

0–1Full time

Lazio

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bologna had 93 days of rest, Lazio 92.9 and had to travel 305 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel305 kmRest days93 · 92.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Bologna46%

Draw25%

Lazio29%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.17

Bologna44%

Draw26%

Lazio30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Bologna45%

Draw26%

Lazio29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.16

Bologna39%

Draw26%

Lazio35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.31

Bologna46%

Draw25%

Lazio29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.16

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

31°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 37%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 78

Team strength

Bologna

Lazio

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

35 AttackIn forecast 53

48 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Lazio

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 9.80

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

31% On target shareContext 47%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

60% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.17

9.80 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.33 BlocksContext 2.70

1.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

50% Save rateContext 70%

56% PossessionIn forecast 49%

459 PassesContext 492

394 Accurate passesContext 436

86% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.50 FoulsContext 11.00

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest93 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest92.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel305 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	93Serie A 2025-2026, 23 May	92.9Serie A 2025-2026, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	305 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 5E. Helland 20N. Zortea

19L. Ferguson 17O. El Azzouzi

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 7R. Orsolini

91R. Piccoli

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

35C. Mandas(G)

23A. Pedraza Sag 25Oliver Provstgaard 5D. Doekhi 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 6N. Rovella 7O. Dele-Bashiru

10M. Zaccagni 19B. Dia 22M. Cancellieri

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Lazio-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home No home games yet this season.

Lazio · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Bologna wins2 draws4 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored30% Clean sheets40% · 40%

22 Mar 2026Bologna0–2Lazio
7 Dec 2025Lazio1–1Bologna
16 Mar 2025Bologna5–0Lazio
24 Nov 2024Lazio3–0Bologna
18 Feb 2024Lazio1–2Bologna
3 Nov 2023Bologna1–0Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Bologna	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.50	2.72
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.63
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.63
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Bologna	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	3.89
Corners conceded	4.00	3.78
Match total	7.90	7.67	8.63
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.60
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	2.80	4.20	2.63
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.04league 2.63

Red cards0.23league 0.00

Cards 5+65%league 0%

Fouls25.0league 22.3

Penalties0.19league 0.00

Home wins37%league 25%

Bologna8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L25 Jan 26A · Genoa2–33
D28 Apr 25A · Udinese0–02
W22 Apr 24A · AS Roma3–12
W18 Feb 24A · Lazio2–13
L12 Nov 23A · Fiorentina1–22

Lazio9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds3

L17 May 26A · AS Roma0–24
L18 Feb 24H · Bologna1–22
L17 Dec 23H · Inter0–22
L16 Sep 23A · Juventus1–31
D12 May 23H · Lecce2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.