Bournemouth vs Everton – 29 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Everton 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bournemouth. Bournemouth had 6 days of rest, Everton 7 and had to travel 308 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel308 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bournemouth54%

Draw23%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.06

Bournemouth52%

Draw24%

Everton24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Bournemouth54%

Draw23%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.06

Bournemouth46%

Draw25%

Everton29%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.19

Bournemouth54%

Draw23%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.10

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

19°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.9 mm
Wind 29 km/h
Humidity 92%

Strong wind

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 168

Team strength

Bournemouth

Everton

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

83 AttackIn forecast 61

82 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Everton

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.30 ShotsContext 11.70

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

31% On target shareContext 41%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

58% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.90 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.10 BlocksContext 5.78

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

71% Save rateContext 62%

50% PossessionIn forecast 42%

422 PassesContext 367

343 Accurate passesContext 292

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.60 FoulsContext 10.90

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth L

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km616 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 0 pts vs 0.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L23 AugA · Manchester City1–20.9 xPts

Everton W

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W22 AugH · Crystal Palace2–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug	7Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	616 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

8A. Scott 4L. Cook

16M. Tavernier 19J. Kluivert 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 34M. Röhl

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

19T. George 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Everton+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home No home games yet this season.

Everton · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Bournemouth wins0 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.13 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets25% · 38%

10 Feb 2026Everton1–2Bournemouth
2 Dec 2025Bournemouth0–1Everton
4 Jan 2025Bournemouth1–0Everton
31 Aug 2024Everton2–3Bournemouth
30 Mar 2024Bournemouth2–1Everton
7 Oct 2023Everton3–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Bournemouth	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.83
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	—
Corners conceded	8.00	—
Match total	11.00	—	8.36
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	—
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	1.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Bournemouth	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.33
Corners conceded	5.80	5.67
Match total	11.00	10.00	8.36
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.90	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 168 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.67

Red cards0.14league 0.08

Cards 5+38%league 33%

Fouls21.9league 23.8

Penalties0.22league 0.25

Home wins40%league 58%

Bournemouth9 with this referee

Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

L3 Jan 26H · Arsenal2–33
D20 Dec 25H · Burnley1–11
D16 Dec 24H · West Ham1–10
D26 Oct 24A · Aston Villa1–16
W11 Nov 23H · Newcastle2–02

Everton10 with this referee

Record2-4-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L19 Apr 26H · Liverpool1–22
D31 Jan 26A · Brighton1–12
W6 Dec 25H · Nottingham Forest3–04
L18 Aug 25A · Leeds0–12
L26 Apr 25A · Chelsea0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.