Cagliari vs Genoa – 22 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 14:00 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 14th · 10 pts · 11 played LDLLD

3–3Full time

Genoa 18th · 7 pts · 11 played DLLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Cagliari had 14 days of rest, Genoa 13 and had to travel 576 km.

Away travel576 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cagliari40%

Draw29%

Genoa32%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.13

Cagliari42%

Draw27%

Genoa31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Cagliari40%

Draw29%

Genoa31%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.11

Cagliari33%

Draw29%

Genoa38%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.27

Cagliari41%

Draw27%

Genoa32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.26

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 40

Team strength

Cagliari

Genoa

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

31 AttackIn forecast 23

31 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Genoa

0.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.73

1.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

55% Scored inContext 55%

18% Clean sheetsContext 18%

9.36 ShotsContext 11.00

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.45

33% On target shareContext 31%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.55

58% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.00 Shots allowedContext 10.27

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

4.11 BlocksContext 3.75

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

78% Save rateContext 61%

44% PossessionIn forecast 48%

357 PassesContext 363

287 Accurate passesContext 284

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70

14.27 FoulsContext 14.82

14.55 Fouls sufferedContext 13.64

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 2.82

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.90 ShotsContext 11.60

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

32% On target shareContext 31%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

57% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.90 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

4.50 BlocksContext 3.71

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

78% Save rateContext 61%

44% PossessionIn forecast 47%

358 PassesContext 356

286 Accurate passesContext 280

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.68

14.10 FoulsContext 14.80

14.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,463 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genoa

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel576 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov	13Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	576 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,463 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Caprile(G)

6S. Luperto 26Y. Mina 28G. Zappa

2M. Palestra 90M. Folorunsho 16M. Prati 14A. Deiola 17M. Felici

29G. Borrelli 94S. Esposito

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1N. Leali(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

3Aarón Martín 2M. Thorsby 32M. Frendrup 17R. Malinovskyi 15B. Norton-Cuffy

9Vítinha 29L. Colombo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Genoa+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.40

Genoa · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Cagliari	Genoa
Como	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Lazio	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 H
Sassuolo	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Bologna	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Lecce	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Parma	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Napoli	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	8 of 24 · 1.00 per game	7 of 24 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Cagliari wins2 draws3 Genoa wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.83 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

7 Mar 2025Cagliari1–1Genoa
24 Nov 2024Genoa2–2Cagliari
29 Apr 2024Genoa3–0Cagliari
5 Nov 2023Cagliari2–1Genoa
24 Apr 2022Genoa1–0Cagliari
12 Sep 2021Cagliari2–3Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.82	0.73
Conceded per game	1.27	1.45
Match goals	2.09	2.18	2.42
Over 1.5	82%	73%
Over 2.5	27%	55%	44%
Over 3.5	9%	9%
Both teams scored	45%	55%	50%
Clean sheets	18%	18%
Failed to score	45%	45%
Games	11	11

	Cagliari	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.60
Match goals	2.10	2.40	2.42
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	44%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	4.00
Corners conceded	5.11	5.43
Match total	8.67	9.43	8.85
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	2.27	2.82
Opponent cards	2.09	2.27
Match total	4.36	5.09	4.00
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	91% 10/11
Over 4.5	36% 4/11	55% 6/11

	Cagliari	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	4.17
Corners conceded	5.50	5.17
Match total	9.13	9.34	8.85
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.20
Match total	4.20	5.10	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.90

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls25.7league 26.0

Penalties0.33league 0.31

Home wins35%league 37%

Cagliari4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L23 May 25A · Napoli0–21
D6 Apr 25A · Empoli0–04
L15 Sep 24H · Napoli0–41
L27 Sep 23H · AC Milan1–33

Genoa2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Oct 25A · Napoli1–23
L21 Dec 24H · Napoli1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.