Cagliari
Attack−23%
Defense risk+20%
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Juventus. Juventus were without M. Locatelli and K. Yıldız. Cagliari had 22.2 days of rest, Juventus 21.1 and had to travel 660 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel660 kmRest days22.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Cagliari26%
Draw25%
Juventus49%
Cagliari26%
Draw25%
Juventus50%
Cagliari25%
Draw24%
Juventus51%
Cagliari21%
Draw23%
Juventus57%
Cagliari27%
Draw25%
Juventus48%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
21°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 69%
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 51
Team strength
Cagliari
Juventus
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
31
AttackIn forecast
57
31
DefenceIn forecast
76
87
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack+5%
Defense risk−10%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
CagliariJuventus
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.47
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.80
ShotsContext
17.40
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
39%
On target shareContext
33%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
58%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
3.75
OffsidesContext
2.60
20.20
Shots allowedContext
7.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
5.00
BlocksContext
1.75
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
91%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
403
PassesContext
492
342
Accurate passesContext
428
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.20
FoulsContext
14.80
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.54
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.10
ShotsContext
18.10
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
33%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
64%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.63
15.70
Shots allowedContext
8.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.70
BlocksContext
2.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
83%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
399
PassesContext
498
332
Accurate passesContext
431
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.80
FoulsContext
13.50
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
WLWWW
Rest22.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 12 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +6.2 vs expected
Juventus
WDLWW
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel660 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 68 · 10 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.2Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21.1Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 660 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2Zé Pedro
4Alessandro Romano
6H. Winks
8M. Adopo
70D. Maldini
79Y. Massolin
31Paul Mendy
Juventus
Confirmed XI
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik
26J. Lucumí
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
12Douglas Luiz
29P. Sarr
31N. González
22W. McKennie
7Francisco Conceição
9R. Kolo Muani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −5.3% · Defence line −3.6% of weighted minutes
- MID A. Deiola Rotation 6.70 Att −2.3% Def −1.7%
- DEF Riyad Idrissi Rotation 6.47 Def −1.8%
- ATT Kevin Carlos Rotation 6.47 Att −1.8%
- ATT M. Felici Rotation 6.64 Att −1.1%
- MID Yael Trepy Depth 6.72 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Juventus
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −34.3% · Defence line −12.5% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Locatelli Core 7.59 Att −9.7% Def −7.2%
- ATT K. Yıldız Core 7.23 Att −16.7%
- MID K. Thuram Starter 6.95 Att −4.7% Def −3.5%
- ATT J. Boga Rotation 6.92 Att −3.1%
- DEF K. Grabara Rotation 7.56 Def −1.1%
- DEF J. Cabal Rotation 6.44 Def −0.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Juventus-1.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Juventus · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Cagliari wins2 draws5 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 17 Jan 2026Cagliari1–0Juventus
- 29 Nov 2025Juventus2–1Cagliari
- 23 Feb 2025Cagliari0–1Juventus
- 6 Oct 2024Juventus1–1Cagliari
- 19 Apr 2024Cagliari2–2Juventus
- 11 Nov 2023Juventus2–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 2.40 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Cagliari | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.60 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 8.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 11.20 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 4.00 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cagliari | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 8.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.89 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 3.37
Red cards0.27league 0.05
Cards 5+63%league 30%
Fouls23.8league 22.0
Penalties0.22league 0.12
Home wins53%league 46%
Cagliari6 with this referee
Record0-2-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L9 Feb 26A · AS Roma0–24
- D5 May 24H · Lecce1–15
- L16 Mar 24A · Monza0–11
- L5 Feb 24A · AS Roma0–41
- L16 Dec 23A · Napoli1–23
Juventus3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- W24 Aug 25H · Parma2–03
- W19 Aug 24H · Como3–02
- D11 Sep 22H · Salernitana2–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari5 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Juventus5 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
