Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar – 18 Oct 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 Cambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden

Cambuur 13th · 8 pts · 8 played LDWDW

2–2Full time

AZ Alkmaar 3rd · 19 pts · 8 played WWDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. Cambuur were without J. Amofa. AZ Alkmaar were without K. Smit. Cambuur had 7 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 2.8 and had to travel 95 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel95 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Cambuur22%

Draw21%

AZ Alkmaar56%

Expected goals 1.30 – 2.15

Cambuur28%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Cambuur22%

Draw22%

AZ Alkmaar57%

Expected goals 1.28 – 2.14

Cambuur16%

Draw19%

AZ Alkmaar65%

Expected goals 1.16 – 2.41

Cambuur23%

Draw22%

AZ Alkmaar55%

Expected goals 1.24 – 2.02

Over 2.5 67% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–2

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeuwarden)

10°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 92%

Referee · NetherlandsStan Teuben

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 4

Team strength

Cambuur

AZ Alkmaar

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

22 AttackIn forecast 52

23 DefenceIn forecast 49

42 Form indexContext 37

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cambuur

Attack−18%

Defense risk+28%

AZ Alkmaar

Attack+12%

Defense risk−15%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Cambuur

AZ Alkmaar

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.54

2.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

88% Scored inContext 88%

25% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.00 ShotsContext 18.63

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.88

35% On target shareContext 37%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 12.38

70% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

15.75 Shots allowedContext 8.75

5.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.63

4.38 BlocksContext 2.57

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.63

64% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 59%

378 PassesContext 536

304 Accurate passesContext 461

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.25 FoulsContext 11.50

13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.63

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.38

2.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.40 ShotsContext 17.40

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

33% On target shareContext 36%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

68% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.20 Shots allowedContext 9.60

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.80 BlocksContext 2.67

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

66% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 58%

408 PassesContext 536

329 Accurate passesContext 459

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.10 FoulsContext 11.80

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cambuur LDWDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km158 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 8 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected

W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts
L30 AugH · Twente1–41.0 xPts

AZ Alkmaar DLWLW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel95 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected

W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts
D11 SepH · Willem II1–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	158 km	162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cambuur Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1T. Jansen(G)

28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah

8N. Souren 33M. Maertens

11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka

13N. Binder

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cambuur Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −9.9% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Amofa Starter 6.62 Def −9.9%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): W. Asselman, D. Visser

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −13.8% · Defence line −6.3% of weighted minutes

MID K. Smit Starter 6.98 Att −11.9% Def −6.3%
ATT J. Hornkamp Rotation 6.68 Att −1.9%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Resink

Total impact vs full squads

Cambuur+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Cambuur · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 3.25

AZ Alkmaar · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar
ADO Den Haag	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Telstar	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Feyenoord	L 2–5 H	L 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 A
Points	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	2.25
Conceded per game	2.38	1.00
Match goals	3.75	3.25	3.45
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	75%	38%	67%
Over 3.5	63%	38%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	25%	38%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	8	8

	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	2.00
Conceded per game	2.38	1.00
Match goals	3.75	3.00	3.45
Over 1.5	88%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	40%	67%
Over 3.5	63%	30%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Failed to score	13%	20%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	8.25
Corners conceded	5.75	3.75
Match total	9.63	12.00	10.43
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	1.63	1.13
Opponent cards	1.75	1.25
Match total	3.38	2.38	2.75
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	13% 1/8

	Cambuur	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	7.60
Corners conceded	5.00	4.00
Match total	10.30	11.60	10.43
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.70	3.20	2.75
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stan Teuben Netherlands · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 2.74

Red cards0.00league 0.06

Cards 5+25%league 14%

Fouls21.8league 21.2

Penalties0.00league 0.23

Home wins25%league 34%

Cambuur

No previous matches with this referee.

AZ Alkmaar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.