Cambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Cambuur had 7.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 7.1 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cambuur21%
Draw20%
Feyenoord59%
Cambuur26%
Draw25%
Feyenoord49%
Cambuur21%
Draw20%
Feyenoord59%
Cambuur16%
Draw18%
Feyenoord67%
Cambuur21%
Draw21%
Feyenoord58%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeuwarden)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 122
Team strength
Cambuur
Feyenoord
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
22
AttackIn forecast
76
23
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CambuurFeyenoord
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
3.21
2.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-1.11
Goals minus xGContext
-1.71
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
24.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
30%
On target shareContext
25%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
18.00
65%
Box shareContext
74%
3%
ConversionContext
6%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
5.50
BlocksContext
1.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
56%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
445
PassesContext
498
380
Accurate passesContext
432
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.24
7.50
FoulsContext
5.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
—
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.90
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.50
ShotsContext
17.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
28%
On target shareContext
35%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
62%
Box shareContext
72%
3%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.75
Shots allowedContext
10.50
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.50
BlocksContext
2.50
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
74%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
487
PassesContext
409
404
Accurate passesContext
334
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.00
FoulsContext
9.20
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cambuur
LL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km490 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 0 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cambuur |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 490 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
23L. Jetten
6J. Amofa
4I. Baouf
27W. Kooistra
9S. Vink
8N. Souren
10Rafik El Arguioui
11I. Hamache
7S. Bouhoudane
29I. Henstra
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol
6J. St. Juste
4T. Watanabe
26G. Read
10L. Valente
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cambuur
Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cambuur+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cambuur · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Feyenoord · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cambuur | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Cambuur | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.30 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cambuur | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 13.50 | 10.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cambuur | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 10.00 | 10.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.20 | 2.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 2.13
Red cards0.12league 0.09
Cards 5+26%league 9%
Fouls21.7league 20.6
Penalties0.30league 0.04
Home wins44%league 35%
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
Feyenoord14 with this referee
Record4-5-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds1
- W25 Apr 26H · Groningen3–10
- D22 Mar 26H · Ajax1–11
- L18 Jan 26H · Sparta Rotterdam3–41
- D21 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar3–33
- L11 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cambuur2 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Feyenoord2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cambuur4 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
