Cambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Cambuur had 7.1 days of rest, Twente 14.2 and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmRest days7.1 · 14.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
Cambuur24%
Draw22%
Twente54%
Cambuur29%
Draw26%
Twente45%
Cambuur24%
Draw22%
Twente55%
Cambuur18%
Draw19%
Twente62%
Cambuur24%
Draw22%
Twente54%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeuwarden)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 31
Team strength
Cambuur
Twente
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
22
AttackIn forecast
41
23
DefenceIn forecast
49
12
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CambuurTwente
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
4.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
2.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.54
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
67%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.67
ShotsContext
22.50
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
32%
On target shareContext
29%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
70%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.33
Shots allowedContext
7.50
7.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.67
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
52%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
430
PassesContext
574
365
Accurate passesContext
500
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.67
FoulsContext
9.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
6.50
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
2.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.80
ShotsContext
18.63
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.13
29%
On target shareContext
38%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
12.88
66%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.40
BlocksContext
3.88
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
58%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
469
PassesContext
467
390
Accurate passesContext
386
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.40
FoulsContext
8.25
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cambuur
LLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 0 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cambuur |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 14.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
6J. Amofa
23L. Jetten
10Rafik El Arguioui
8N. Souren
3Jorn Berkhout
29I. Henstra
7S. Bouhoudane
Twente
Confirmed XI
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard
43Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
42D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
7M. Pjaca
19Y. Taha
27S. Ørjasæter
9W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cambuur
Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cambuur+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Twente-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Cambuur · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.50
Twente · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cambuur | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Cambuur | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 10% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cambuur | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.50 | 10.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cambuur | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 10.13 | 10.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.30 | 2.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.97league 2.25
Red cards0.03league 0.06
Cards 5+10%league 13%
Fouls22.5league 20.5
Penalties0.10league 0.22
Home wins42%league 31%
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
Twente1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Apr 25A · PEC Zwolle1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cambuur3 games · scored 3 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Twente2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Cambuur5 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
