Celje
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 19:15
Stadion Z’dežele, Celje
Celje
20th · 2 pts · 3 played
DDL
First leg1–2
2–0Full time
Ararat-Armenia
5th · 9 pts · 5 played
WLWLW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,449 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Celje—%
Draw—%
Ararat-Armenia—%
Weather (Celje)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 88
Team strength
CeljeArarat-Armenia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
7
17
AttackIn forecast
8
19
DefenceIn forecast
8
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArarat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CeljeArarat-Armenia
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
50%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
33%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
—
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
64%
Box shareContext
—
12%
ConversionContext
23%
1.75
OffsidesContext
—
17.43
Shots allowedContext
—
7.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.86
BlocksContext
—
5.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
72%
Save rateContext
40%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
—
446
PassesContext
—
378
Accurate passesContext
—
85%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.86
Team ratingContext
—
12.00
FoulsContext
—
15.71
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celje
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,898 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Ararat-Armenia
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel2,449 km8,069 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celje |
Ararat-Armenia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 30 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,449 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,898 km | 8,069 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celje
Confirmed XI
1Ž. Leban(G)
33L. Koútris
6A. Tutyškinas
4D. Hrka
2P. Širvys
10S. Sešlar
19M. Zabukovnik
8M. Kvesić
11M. Avdyli
47A. Kučys
77M. Ivanšek
Ararat-Armenia
Confirmed XI
98João Bravim(G)
16E. Grigoryan
47A. Malis
43Bruno Wilson
3J. Julio
20A. Tera
19K. Muradyan
2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celje
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ararat-Armenia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celje · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Ararat-Armenia · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Celje wins0 draws1 Ararat-Armenia wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Aug 2026Ararat-Armenia2–1Celje
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celje | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 5 |
| Celje | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celje | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 2.00 | |
| Match total | — | 4.00 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Celje | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 5.50 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.24
Red cards0.15league 0.26
Cards 5+39%league 42%
Fouls23.7league 24.7
Penalties0.34league 0.31
Home wins42%league 51%
CeljeNo previous matches with this referee.
Ararat-ArmeniaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celje2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ararat-Armenia5 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Celje9 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.