Celje
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 28 · 19:15
Stadion Z’dežele, Celje
Celje
13th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
First leg3–3
1–1Full time
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
12th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel674 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Celje—%
Draw—%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë—%
Weather (Celje)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 61
Team strength
CeljeEgnatia Rrogozhinë
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
17
AttackIn forecast
19
19
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CeljeEgnatia Rrogozhinë
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.33
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
—
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.22
ShotsContext
—
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
38%
On target shareContext
—
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
63%
Box shareContext
—
13%
ConversionContext
—
2.33
OffsidesContext
—
16.67
Shots allowedContext
—
6.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.78
BlocksContext
—
5.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
74%
Save rateContext
—
59%
PossessionIn forecast
—
455
PassesContext
—
390
Accurate passesContext
—
86%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.91
Team ratingContext
—
12.00
FoulsContext
—
15.22
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celje
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,347 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel674 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celje |
Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 674 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,347 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 22.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celje
Confirmed XI
1Ž. Leban(G)
33L. Koútris
6A. Tutyškinas
4D. Hrka
2P. Širvys
19M. Zabukovnik
13P. Daniel
8M. Kvesić
11M. Avdyli
47A. Kučys
10S. Sešlar
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Confirmed XI
98M. Dajsinani(G)
19A. Xhemajli
33E. Bitri
28E. Sota
29Andrey Yago
7Fernando Medeiros
17A. Kryeziu
20K. Loukili
22Guillem Jaime
10A. Albanese
2D. Adjessa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celje
Absences are shown before kick-off
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celje · Home
No home games yet this season.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Celje wins1 draws0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins
Goals per game3.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Jul 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë3–3Celje
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celje | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Celje | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celje | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.67 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Celje | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | — | |
| Match total | 9.56 | — | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 4.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 6.60 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 4.18
Red cards0.15league 0.27
Cards 5+26%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 26.5
Penalties0.23league 0.33
Home wins46%league 49%
CeljeNo previous matches with this referee.
Egnatia RrogozhinëNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celje1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Celje10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Egnatia Rrogozhinë10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.