Celje
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Wed, Aug 26 · 20:00
Stadion Z’dežele, Celje
Celje
11th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
First leg1–1
1–2Full time
Slovan Bratislava
10th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel255 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Celje—%
Draw—%
Slovan Bratislava—%
Weather (Celje)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 141
Team strength
CeljeSlovan Bratislava
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
17
AttackIn forecast
18
19
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSlovan Bratislava
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CeljeSlovan Bratislava
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.83
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
39%
On target shareContext
32%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.83
Shots allowedContext
16.33
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
71%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
467
PassesContext
408
397
Accurate passesContext
329
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.57
FoulsContext
12.14
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celje
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km510 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Slovan Bratislava
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel255 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celje |
Slovan Bratislava |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 19 Aug | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 19 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 510 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celje
Confirmed XI
1Ž. Leban(G)
11M. Avdyli
6A. Tutyškinas
4D. Hrka
2P. Širvys
19M. Zabukovnik
13P. Daniel
8M. Kvesić
10S. Sešlar
91Y. Dukuly
17A. Kotnik
Slovan Bratislava
Confirmed XI
71D. Takáč(G)
57Sandro Cruz
15S. Marković
12K. Bajrič
28C. Blackman
3P. Pokorný
70C. Martinez
21Suleiman Camara
5R. Ibrahim
11T. Barseghyan
99A. Šporar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celje
Absences are shown before kick-off
Slovan Bratislava
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celje · Home
No home games yet this season.
Slovan Bratislava · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Celje wins2 draws1 Slovan Bratislava wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 19 Aug 2026Slovan Bratislava1–1Celje
- 30 Jul 2024Slovan Bratislava5–0Celje
- 24 Jul 2024Celje1–1Slovan Bratislava
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celje | Slovan Bratislava | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Celje | Slovan Bratislava | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celje | Slovan Bratislava | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Celje | Slovan Bratislava | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.83 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 12.66 | 10.25 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 141 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 2.60
Red cards0.26league 0.30
Cards 5+58%league 10%
Fouls24.9league 23.9
Penalties0.31league 0.20
Home wins43%league 50%
CeljeNo previous matches with this referee.
Slovan Bratislava1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Aug 24A · FC Midtjylland1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celje1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Slovan Bratislava1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Celje9 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Slovan Bratislava10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.