Celta Vigo
Attack+7%
Defense risk−11%
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves were without Ángel Pérez. Celta Vigo had 2.8 days of rest, Alaves 8 and had to travel 500 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel500 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Celta Vigo39%
Draw29%
Alaves33%
Celta Vigo46%
Draw26%
Alaves28%
Celta Vigo39%
Draw28%
Alaves32%
Celta Vigo32%
Draw29%
Alaves39%
Celta Vigo39%
Draw27%
Alaves34%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
22°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 33%
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 50
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Alaves
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
48
61
DefenceIn forecast
55
30
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack+5%
Defense risk−23%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Celta VigoAlaves
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
50%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
9.88
ShotsContext
11.88
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
33%
On target shareContext
36%
4.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
47%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
4.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.13
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.13
BlocksContext
4.50
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
77%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
512
PassesContext
322
446
Accurate passesContext
255
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.00
FoulsContext
13.25
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.10
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
31%
On target shareContext
38%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
50%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.89
OffsidesContext
3.88
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.40
BlocksContext
4.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
76%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
513
PassesContext
315
449
Accurate passesContext
248
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.20
FoulsContext
13.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
DLWDL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,622 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 30 · 5 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Alaves
WLLDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel500 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 29 · 4 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 500 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,622 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −31.6% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF C. Starfelt Rotation 6.90 Def −4.9%
- MID Miguel Román Rotation 6.89 Att −6.0% Def −2.5%
- ATT Borja Iglesias Rotation 6.58 Att −11.1%
- ATT Pablo Durán Rotation 6.64 Att −9.2%
- ATT Jones El-Abdellaoui Rotation 6.57 Att −5.3%
Alaves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −14.5% · Defence line −10.5% of weighted minutes
- MID Ángel Pérez Starter 6.71 Att −12.9% Def −8.5%
- MID Mikel Rodríguez Rotation 6.90 Att −1.6% Def −1.0%
- DEF F. Garcés Rotation 6.40 Def −1.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alaves+0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Alaves · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 H | W 5–2 H |
| Valencia | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Celta Vigo wins2 draws2 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 22 Mar 2026Celta Vigo3–4Alaves
- 22 Nov 2025Alaves0–1Celta Vigo
- 27 Jan 2025Alaves1–1Celta Vigo
- 16 Aug 2024Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
- 27 Apr 2024Alaves3–0Celta Vigo
- 28 Sep 2023Celta Vigo1–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.50 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 9.43 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.38 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.78 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.50 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 4.40
Red cards0.28league 0.29
Cards 5+46%league 57%
Fouls24.7league 24.7
Penalties0.26league 0.35
Home wins40%league 43%
Celta Vigo3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L22 Apr 26A · Barcelona0–11
- L6 Feb 26H · Osasuna1–22
- L16 Sep 23H · Mallorca0–11
Alaves6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Aug 26A · Rayo Vallecano1–12
- W17 May 26A · Oviedo1–01
- L11 May 25A · Athletic Club0–11
- D10 May 24H · Girona2–23
- W10 Mar 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo8 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alaves8 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
