Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Athletic Club. Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Athletic Club 3 and had to travel 487 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel487 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Celta Vigo47%
Draw25%
Athletic Club28%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw25%
Athletic Club27%
Celta Vigo46%
Draw25%
Athletic Club29%
Celta Vigo39%
Draw26%
Athletic Club35%
Celta Vigo46%
Draw25%
Athletic Club29%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
18°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 42
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
36
AttackIn forecast
51
61
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoAthletic Club
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
5.50
ShotsContext
11.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
46%
On target shareContext
35%
2.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
34%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
10.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.50
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
57%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
587
PassesContext
385
518
Accurate passesContext
303
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.51
12.00
FoulsContext
8.50
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.40
ShotsContext
12.50
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
34%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.40
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.90
BlocksContext
2.25
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
481
PassesContext
386
415
Accurate passesContext
309
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.30
FoulsContext
12.50
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
DL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 36 · 1 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 27 Aug | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 27 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 487 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,531 km | 934 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
4A. Faye
2C. Starfelt
20Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
14Aleix Febas
15Alvaro Núñez
9Ferran Jutglà
16Hugo González
19W. Swedberg
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
4Aitor Paredes
12Jesús Areso
24Beñat Gerenabarrena
16Ruíz de Galarreta
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
9I. Williams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Athletic Club-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Athletic Club · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
4 Celta Vigo wins1 draws5 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 17 May 2026Athletic Club1–1Celta Vigo
- 14 Dec 2025Celta Vigo2–0Athletic Club
- 19 Jan 2025Celta Vigo1–2Athletic Club
- 22 Sep 2024Athletic Club3–1Celta Vigo
- 15 May 2024Celta Vigo2–1Athletic Club
- 10 Nov 2023Athletic Club4–3Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 15.00 | 10.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.50 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 12.11 | 10.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.40league 4.22
Red cards0.36league 0.22
Cards 5+69%league 44%
Fouls24.1league 25.7
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins40%league 52%
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 Jan 26H · Rayo Vallecano3–04
Athletic Club3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Feb 26A · Oviedo2–13
- L22 Dec 25H · Espanyol1–24
- D28 Jan 24A · Cadiz0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Athletic Club2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
