Celta Vigo vs Barcelona – 9 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 9 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 13th · 13 pts · 11 played LDDWW

2–4Full time

Barcelona 3rd · 25 pts · 11 played WLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were slight favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 61). Barcelona usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Celta Vigo had 3.1 days of rest, Barcelona 7.1 and had to travel 906 km.

Away travel906 kmRest days3.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Celta Vigo21%

Draw24%

Barcelona54%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.78

Celta Vigo22%

Draw25%

Barcelona53%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.73

Celta Vigo21%

Draw25%

Barcelona54%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.75

Celta Vigo16%

Draw22%

Barcelona62%

Expected goals 0.93 – 2.00

Celta Vigo22%

Draw25%

Barcelona53%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.76

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 27

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Barcelona

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

36 AttackIn forecast 97

61 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Barcelona

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.55

1.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

91% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.00 ShotsContext 19.82

3.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.64

32% On target shareContext 39%

7.45 Shots in the boxContext 11.82

61% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.55 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.91

2.55 BlocksContext 2.78

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

78% Save rateContext 72%

52% PossessionIn forecast 68%

508 PassesContext 614

440 Accurate passesContext 549

87% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.27 FoulsContext 10.73

11.36 Fouls sufferedContext 12.09

2.09 Yellow cardsContext 1.18

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.61

100% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.60 ShotsContext 18.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

33% On target shareContext 39%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

66% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.00 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.20 BlocksContext 3.00

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

79% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 67%

480 PassesContext 610

414 Accurate passesContext 547

86% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.20 FoulsContext 10.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km5,543 km in 14d

Schedule load18%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel906 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 18	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	906 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,543 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	12.7	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 12Manu Fernández

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 3Óscar Mingueza

18Pablo Durán 7Borja Iglesias 9Ferran Jutglà

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25W. Szczęsny(G)

3Alejandro Balde 5Pau Cubarsí 4R. Araujo 24Eric García

20Dani Olmo 21F. de Jong 16Fermín López

14M. Rashford 9R. Lewandowski 10Lamine Yamal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Barcelona+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.83points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-5-1
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.17

Barcelona · Away 1.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Barcelona
Levante	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Elche	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Girona	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Getafe	L 0–2 H	W 3–0 H
Points	7 of 21 · 1.00 per game	19 of 21 · 2.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins2 draws6 Barcelona wins

Goals per game1.60 – 2.30 Over 2.590% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

19 Apr 2025Barcelona4–3Celta Vigo
23 Nov 2024Celta Vigo2–2Barcelona
17 Feb 2024Celta Vigo1–2Barcelona
23 Sep 2023Barcelona3–2Celta Vigo
4 Jun 2023Celta Vigo2–1Barcelona
9 Oct 2022Barcelona1–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	2.55
Conceded per game	1.27	1.18
Match goals	2.45	3.73	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	27%	91%	54%
Over 3.5	9%	45%
Both teams scored	91%	73%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	27%
Failed to score	9%	0%
Games	11	11

	Celta Vigo	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	3.00	3.80	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	90%	80%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.91	6.60
Corners conceded	4.73	5.10
Match total	9.64	11.70	9.79
Over 8.5	64% 7/11	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	36% 4/11	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.18	1.27
Opponent cards	2.45	2.91
Match total	4.63	4.18	4.23
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	55% 6/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	45% 5/11

	Celta Vigo	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	6.89
Corners conceded	5.10	5.11
Match total	8.90	12.00	9.79
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	2.60
Match total	4.60	4.50	4.23
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.99

Red cards0.15league 0.24

Cards 5+30%league 43%

Fouls25.4league 24.5

Penalties0.26league 0.34

Home wins48%league 49%

Celta Vigo4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

W23 Apr 25H · Villarreal3–02
W19 May 24A · Granada CF2–11
W4 Feb 24A · Osasuna3–00
L2 Oct 23A · Las Palmas1–21

Barcelona2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W16 May 24A · Almeria2–01
W4 Nov 23A · Real Sociedad1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.