Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Celta Vigo had 6.7 days of rest, Elche 6.9 and had to travel 811 km.
Away travel811 kmRest days6.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Elche25%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw25%
Elche23%
Celta Vigo50%
Draw26%
Elche24%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw27%
Elche31%
Celta Vigo50%
Draw25%
Elche25%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 50
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Elche
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
36
AttackIn forecast
39
61
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoElche
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
82%
Scored inContext
85%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.15
ShotsContext
10.45
4.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
37%
6.55
Shots in the boxContext
7.39
64%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.58
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.67
Shots allowedContext
14.27
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
3.32
BlocksContext
3.91
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.28
72%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
493
PassesContext
494
426
Accurate passesContext
423
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.39
FoulsContext
12.64
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
14.15
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
10.50
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
44%
On target shareContext
41%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
64%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.89
BlocksContext
3.80
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
57%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
483
PassesContext
458
416
Accurate passesContext
385
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.50
FoulsContext
13.10
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,344 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Elche
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel811 km1,426 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 811 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,344 km | 1,426 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
14Alvaro Núñez
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Fer López
17Javi Rueda
23Hugo Álvarez
10Iago Aspas
9Ferran Jutglà
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
18John Nwankwo
3Adrià Pedrosa
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
15Tete Morente
12Gonzalo Villar
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Elche+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.06points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.50
Elche · Away
0.44points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-11
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 AL 2–4 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–3 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Valencia | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 44 of 96 · 1.38 per game | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Celta Vigo wins1 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.14 – 0.71
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 28 Sep 2025Elche2–1Celta Vigo
- 26 Apr 2023Celta Vigo1–0Elche
- 6 Jan 2023Elche0–1Celta Vigo
- 15 May 2022Celta Vigo1–0Elche
- 3 Oct 2021Elche1–0Celta Vigo
- 12 Feb 2021Celta Vigo3–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.85 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 61% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 15% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Celta Vigo | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 3.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 8.40 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 14/32 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 10/32 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 8/32 | 24% 8/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 20/33 | 76% 25/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 13/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Celta Vigo | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.30 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.40 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 4.27
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+32%league 47%
Fouls21.9league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins48%league 49%
Celta Vigo2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W3 Jan 26H · Valencia4–11
- W1 Sep 23A · Almeria3–21
Elche2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D19 Jan 26H · Sevilla2–23
- L25 Oct 25A · Espanyol0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo32 games · scored 43 · conceded 43
2
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
10
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
13
9
76-90
Elche33 games · scored 44 · conceded 50
6
10
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
8
5
46-60
10
7
61-75
9
17
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
