Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 44). Celta Vigo usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Celta Vigo had ? days of rest, Getafe ? and had to travel 469 km.
Away travel469 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Celta Vigo51%
Draw26%
Getafe22%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw25%
Getafe23%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw27%
Getafe22%
Celta Vigo44%
Draw28%
Getafe28%
Celta Vigo52%
Draw25%
Getafe23%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Getafe
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
27
61
DefenceIn forecast
59
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoGetafe
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
11.20
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
43%
On target shareContext
34%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
64%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.38
BlocksContext
1.90
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
64%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
495
PassesContext
298
425
Accurate passesContext
211
86%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.30
FoulsContext
14.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel469 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 469 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
21M. Ristić
6I. Moriba
8Fran Beltrán
3Óscar Mingueza
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
10Iago Aspas
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
21Juan Iglesias
31Ismael Bekhoucha
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
10C. Uche
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Getafe+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
No home games yet this season.
Getafe · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Celta Vigo wins3 draws3 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 24 May 2025Getafe1–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Nov 2024Celta Vigo1–0Getafe
- 11 Feb 2024Getafe3–2Celta Vigo
- 8 Oct 2023Celta Vigo2–2Getafe
- 3 May 2023Getafe1–0Celta Vigo
- 24 Oct 2022Celta Vigo1–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Celta Vigo | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.40 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Celta Vigo | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 7.80 | 10.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celta VigoGetafeCelta Vigo10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
