Celta Vigo vs Girona – 14 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 14 · 13:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 15th · 3 pts · 4 played LDDD

1–1Full time

Girona 20th · 0 pts · 3 played LLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Girona. Celta Vigo had 13.9 days of rest, Girona 14.8 and had to travel 952 km.

Away travel952 kmRest days13.9 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0

Celta Vigo54%

Draw25%

Girona21%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.95

Celta Vigo53%

Draw25%

Girona22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Celta Vigo53%

Draw25%

Girona22%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.99

Celta Vigo46%

Draw27%

Girona26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.07

Celta Vigo54%

Draw25%

Girona21%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.99

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.60
Matches 5

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Girona

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

36 AttackIn forecast 49

61 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Girona

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33

0.67 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.21

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

75% Scored inContext 33%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.25 ShotsContext 9.67

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

29% On target shareContext 28%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.33

56% Box shareContext 54%

7% ConversionContext 3%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.00

9.25 Shots allowedContext 15.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.25 BlocksContext 2.67

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

60% Save rateContext 40%

58% PossessionIn forecast 51%

555 PassesContext 424

488 Accurate passesContext 359

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.38

12.25 FoulsContext 7.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.33

This league season, per match · 4 and 3 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 8.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

38% On target shareContext 38%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

62% Box shareContext 57%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.57

10.20 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.56 BlocksContext 2.80

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

73% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

518 PassesContext 460

451 Accurate passesContext 398

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.72

11.70 FoulsContext 11.60

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel952 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug	14.8La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	952 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

12Manu Fernández 24Carlos Domínguez 32Javi Rodríguez

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 5Sergio Carreira

18Pablo Durán 9Ferran Jutglà 10Iago Aspas

Girona Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez

20A. Witsel 18A. Ounahi 23Iván Martín

3Joel Roca 19V. Vanat 10Y. Asprilla

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Girona-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Girona · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 5.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Girona
Villarreal	D 1–1 H	L 0–5 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Celta Vigo wins3 draws2 Girona wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.00 Over 2.517% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

1 Mar 2025Girona2–2Celta Vigo
29 Sep 2024Celta Vigo1–1Girona
28 Jan 2024Celta Vigo0–1Girona
27 Oct 2023Girona1–0Celta Vigo
23 May 2023Celta Vigo1–1Girona
26 Aug 2022Girona0–1Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	0.33
Conceded per game	1.25	3.33
Match goals	2.00	3.67	2.63
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	67%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	75%	33%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	25%	67%
Games	4	3

	Celta Vigo	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	0.33
Conceded per game	1.25	3.33
Match goals	2.00	3.67	2.63
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	67%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	75%	33%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	25%	67%
Games	4	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.67
Corners conceded	3.50	4.33
Match total	9.00	9.00	9.29
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	4.06
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/3

	Celta Vigo	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	5.30
Match total	9.70	9.30	9.29
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.00	4.06
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.75

Red cards0.40league 0.25

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls26.2league 24.8

Penalties0.60league 0.31

Home wins100%league 44%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

Girona

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.