Celta Vigo vs Levante – 12 May 2026

La Liga Gameweek 36 Tue, May 12 · 18:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 6th · 50 pts · 35 played LLLWW

2–3Full time

Levante 19th · 36 pts · 35 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Levante 3.9 and had to travel 765 km.

Away travel765 kmRest days3 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Celta Vigo45%

Draw28%

Levante27%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.05

Celta Vigo53%

Draw25%

Levante22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Celta Vigo44%

Draw28%

Levante28%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.07

Celta Vigo38%

Draw29%

Levante34%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.18

Celta Vigo46%

Draw27%

Levante28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.14

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 21

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Levante

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

36 AttackIn forecast 55

61 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Levante

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.26 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

83% Scored inContext 66%

26% Clean sheetsContext 23%

9.83 ShotsContext 11.77

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.74

40% On target shareContext 31%

6.34 Shots in the boxContext 7.38

63% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.64 OffsidesContext 1.93

12.00 Shots allowedContext 15.23

4.18 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.09

3.39 BlocksContext 4.03

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.66

73% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

487 PassesContext 352

420 Accurate passesContext 279

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.49 FoulsContext 12.46

11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 12.66

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.40 ShotsContext 16.40

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

44% On target shareContext 30%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

65% Box shareContext 60%

17% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.00

11.80 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.56 BlocksContext 3.33

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

57% Save rateContext 66%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

484 PassesContext 353

416 Accurate passesContext 284

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.50 FoulsContext 13.10

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km930 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel765 km114 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May	3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	930 km	114 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 29Yoel Lago 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 22Hugo Sotelo 8Fer López 17Javi Rueda

23Hugo Álvarez 9Ferran Jutglà 10Iago Aspas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13M. Ryan(G)

6Diego Pampín 2M. Moreno 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

16K. Arriaga

26Kareem Tunde 8Jon Ander Olasagasti 10Pablo Martínez 17Víctor García

19Carlos Espí

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Levante-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 1.18points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-7
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 1.47

Levante · Away 0.76points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-10
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Levante
Atletico Madrid	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Elche	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H
Barcelona	L 0–1 AL 2–4 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Oviedo	L 0–3 HD 0–0 A	W 4–2 HW 2–0 A
Valencia	W 3–2 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Alaves	L 3–4 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 AL 1–4 H
Girona	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HW 4–0 A
Mallorca	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Osasuna	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A
Getafe	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Real Sociedad	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H
Sevilla	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	L 2–4 AL 0–2 H
Points	47 of 102 · 1.38 per game	36 of 102 · 1.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Celta Vigo wins2 draws0 Levante wins

Goals per game1.60 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

2 Nov 2025Levante1–2Celta Vigo
21 Feb 2022Celta Vigo1–1Levante
21 Sep 2021Levante0–2Celta Vigo
30 Apr 2021Celta Vigo2–0Levante
26 Oct 2020Levante1–1Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.17
Conceded per game	1.26	1.63
Match goals	2.66	2.80	2.47
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	46%	43%	45%
Over 3.5	23%	29%
Both teams scored	63%	49%	50%
Clean sheets	26%	23%
Failed to score	17%	34%
Games	35	35

	Celta Vigo	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.30
Match goals	3.30	2.80	2.47
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	45%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	4.03	4.41
Corners conceded	4.45	5.59
Match total	8.48	10.00	9.59
Over 8.5	42% 14/33	56% 18/32
Over 9.5	30% 10/33	41% 13/32
Over 10.5	24% 8/33	34% 11/32
Cards
Cards	1.89	2.31
Opponent cards	2.40	2.49
Match total	4.29	4.80	4.56
Over 3.5	57% 20/35	71% 25/35
Over 4.5	37% 13/35	57% 20/35

	Celta Vigo	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	4.17	5.70
Corners conceded	3.17	4.50
Match total	7.34	10.20	9.59
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.70	3.20
Match total	4.20	5.70	4.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 4.29

Red cards0.14league 0.27

Cards 5+48%league 47%

Fouls24.1league 24.5

Penalties0.33league 0.36

Home wins81%league 48%

Celta Vigo1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D14 Sep 25H · Girona1–10

Levante1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L29 Nov 25H · Athletic Club0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.