Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander – 19 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 19 · 17:30 Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 18th · 4 pts · 6 played LLDDD

5–0Full time

Racing Santander 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Racing Santander. Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Racing Santander 2.9 and had to travel 424 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel424 kmRest days3 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

Celta Vigo42%

Draw26%

Racing Santander32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.21

Celta Vigo48%

Draw25%

Racing Santander27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Celta Vigo43%

Draw25%

Racing Santander32%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.24

Celta Vigo35%

Draw26%

Racing Santander39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.35

Celta Vigo42%

Draw26%

Racing Santander32%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.21

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

25°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 46%

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 57

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Racing Santander

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

36 AttackIn forecast 42

61 DefenceIn forecast 22

19 Form indexContext 52

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Racing Santander

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Racing Santander

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.67

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.21

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

50% Scored inContext 83%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.83 ShotsContext 10.17

2.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

29% On target shareContext 38%

4.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

47% Box shareContext 67%

5% ConversionContext 18%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.67 Shots allowedContext 17.33

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

3.17 BlocksContext 4.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.20

70% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

557 PassesContext 397

486 Accurate passesContext 319

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.33 FoulsContext 14.83

13.83 Fouls sufferedContext 14.83

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.30 ShotsContext 12.70

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 41%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.78

53% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 17%

3.11 OffsidesContext 1.89

13.40 Shots allowedContext 15.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

2.90 BlocksContext 4.00

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

73% Save rateContext 64%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

536 PassesContext 400

469 Accurate passesContext 325

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.40 FoulsContext 14.90

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo LDDDL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km8,329 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected

L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts
D13 SepH · Malaga1–11.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Getafe1–11.1 xPts
D3 SepA · Real Sociedad0–01.0 xPts
L30 AugH · Athletic Club0–21.6 xPts

Racing Santander LWLWL

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel424 km1,761 km in 14d

Schedule load34%Moderate

Form 52 · 6 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

L16 SepA · Barcelona2–70.2 xPts
W12 SepH · Alaves2–11.3 xPts
L5 SepA · Rayo Vallecano2–31.1 xPts
W28 AugH · Elche3–21.8 xPts
L23 AugA · Getafe0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 34
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	424 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	8,329 km	1,761 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 7	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	21.8	22.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 15Alvaro Núñez

23Hugo Álvarez 8Miguel Román 6I. Moriba 17Javi Rueda

19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 16Hugo González

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Racing Santander Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13Julen Agirrezabala(G)

17Jorge Salinas 24J. Belocian 5Pablo Ramón 2Álvaro Mantilla

8André Almeida

19I. Luque 10Iñigo Vicente 23Iván Martín 15Pablo García

21M. Zabiri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Absences are shown before kick-off

Racing Santander Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo-0.5 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Racing Santander+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Racing Santander · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander
Getafe	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.83
Conceded per game	1.00	2.67
Match goals	1.50	4.50	2.64
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	17%	83%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	53%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.83
Conceded per game	1.10	2.67
Match goals	1.80	4.50	2.64
Over 1.5	60%	83%
Over 2.5	20%	83%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	67%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	40%	17%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	5.40
Corners conceded	5.00	8.60
Match total	8.33	14.00	9.79
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	100% 5/5
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	100% 5/5
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	80% 4/5
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.33
Opponent cards	2.17	2.83
Match total	3.84	5.16	4.48
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6

	Celta Vigo	Racing Santander	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.11
Corners conceded	4.44	6.44
Match total	8.33	11.55	9.79
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	3.20	4.70	4.48
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 4.21

Red cards0.23league 0.26

Cards 5+30%league 52%

Fouls22.2league 24.9

Penalties0.33league 0.35

Home wins51%league 44%

Celta Vigo3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2

W3 May 26H · Elche3–12
W3 Jan 26H · Valencia4–11
W1 Sep 23A · Almeria3–21

Racing Santander

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.