Celta Vigo vs Real Betis – 27 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Wed, Aug 27 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 15th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

1–1Full time

Real Betis 7th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Celta Vigo had 4.2 days of rest, Real Betis 5 and had to travel 588 km.

Away travel588 kmRest days4.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Celta Vigo38%

Draw28%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.24

Celta Vigo37%

Draw27%

Real Betis36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Celta Vigo37%

Draw28%

Real Betis35%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26

Celta Vigo31%

Draw28%

Real Betis41%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.39

Celta Vigo38%

Draw27%

Real Betis35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.31

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 30

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Real Betis

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

36 AttackIn forecast 79

61 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Real Betis

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

0.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.99

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

8.50 ShotsContext 14.00

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

29% On target shareContext 32%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

47% Box shareContext 56%

6% ConversionContext 7%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.50 BlocksContext 1.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

57% Save rateContext 86%

60% PossessionIn forecast 41%

501 PassesContext 394

437 Accurate passesContext 331

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.50 FoulsContext 11.50

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.90

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

42% On target shareContext 38%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

62% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.44 BlocksContext 3.30

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

64% Save rateContext 64%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

483 PassesContext 443

414 Accurate passesContext 380

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.00 FoulsContext 12.60

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,000 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel588 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug	5La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	588 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,000 km	946 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

21M. Ristić 29Yoel Lago 32Javi Rodríguez

23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 3Óscar Mingueza

19W. Swedberg 18Pablo Durán

7Borja Iglesias

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

12R. Rodríguez 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 2Héctor Bellerín

8Pablo Fornals 6Sergi Altimira

17Rodrigo Riquelme 20G. Lo Celso 24Aitor Ruibal

19C. Hernández

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+1.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Real Betis-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Real Betis · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Celta Vigo wins2 draws3 Real Betis wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.50 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 10%

8 Feb 2025Celta Vigo3–2Real Betis
10 Nov 2024Real Betis2–2Celta Vigo
12 Apr 2024Real Betis2–1Celta Vigo
3 Jan 2024Celta Vigo2–1Real Betis
4 Feb 2023Real Betis3–4Celta Vigo
2 Oct 2022Celta Vigo1–0Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	2.00	1.50	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Celta Vigo	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	2.00	1.50	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	2.50	1.50
Match total	8.00	5.50	8.61
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	5.50	3.50	3.89
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2

	Celta Vigo	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.40
Corners conceded	4.50	4.70
Match total	10.00	10.10	8.61
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.60
Match total	4.50	4.50	3.89
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 3.50

Red cards0.23league 0.30

Cards 5+53%league 30%

Fouls25.5league 23.4

Penalties0.40league 0.40

Home wins37%league 45%

Celta Vigo3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 5.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

L4 May 25A · Real Madrid2–31
D4 Dec 23H · Cadiz1–11
L22 May 21H · Real Betis2–36

Real Betis4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L31 Mar 24A · Girona2–34
L21 Jan 24H · Barcelona2–41
D12 Nov 23A · Sevilla1–11
W22 May 21A · Celta Vigo3–27

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.