Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Wed, Sep 2 · 19:45
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel194 kmRest days4.2 · ?Matches / 14d3 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Aberdeen—%
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
RefereeDuncan Nicolson
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
Celtic
Aberdeen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
74
AttackIn forecast
10
50
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAberdeen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticAberdeen
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
3.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-1.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.60
100%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
23.33
ShotsContext
10.00
9.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
40%
On target shareContext
27%
18.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
74%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.67
Shots allowedContext
18.33
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.00
BlocksContext
5.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
80%
Save rateContext
69%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
632
PassesContext
352
564
Accurate passesContext
259
89%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.47
Team ratingContext
6.86
8.67
FoulsContext
14.33
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.70
ShotsContext
9.20
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.56
37%
On target shareContext
25%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
62%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.40
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.22
BlocksContext
3.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
66%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
576
PassesContext
369
498
Accurate passesContext
274
86%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.80
FoulsContext
13.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,026 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Aberdeen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel194 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Aberdeen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 29 Aug | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 194 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,026 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 107.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
20C. Carter-Vickers
51C. Donovan
42C. McGregor
13H. Yang
21A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Aberdeen
Confirmed XI
27M. Müller(G)
24N. Guinness-Walker
21G. Molloy
5M. Knoester
23L. Mayo
28C. Cadden
10Alexander Briedl
32A. Aremu
17S. Armstrong
9A. Mouloua
15K. Nisbet
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Aberdeen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Aberdeen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Celtic wins2 draws0 Aberdeen wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.80
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 4 Mar 2026Aberdeen1–2Celtic
- 21 Dec 2025Celtic3–1Aberdeen
- 10 Aug 2025Aberdeen0–2Celtic
- 14 May 2025Aberdeen1–5Celtic
- 25 Feb 2025Celtic5–1Aberdeen
- 4 Dec 2024Aberdeen0–1Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Aberdeen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 3 | 0 |
| Celtic | Aberdeen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — | |
| Failed to score | 10% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Aberdeen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 10.34 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 6.33 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Celtic | Aberdeen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 8.90 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.60 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Duncan Nicolson 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.84
Red cards0.15league 0.05
Cards 5+31%league 26%
Fouls23.7league 24.8
Penalties0.31league 0.53
Home wins31%league 42%
Celtic2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Apr 26H · ST Mirren1–00
- W15 Feb 26A · Kilmarnock3–23
Aberdeen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 May 26H · Dundee Utd2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Aberdeen3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 26 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Aberdeen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.