Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Mar 20 · 15:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel194 kmRest days7 · 91Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Aberdeen—%
Weather (Glasgow)
Forecast from 5 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and Aberdeen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Celtic
Aberdeen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
74
AttackIn forecast
10
50
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAberdeen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticAberdeen
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
89%
Scored inContext
44%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
20.33
ShotsContext
12.11
9.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
45%
On target shareContext
28%
15.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
75%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.78
Shots allowedContext
15.11
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
3.56
BlocksContext
4.44
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
83%
Save rateContext
79%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
604
PassesContext
386
533
Accurate passesContext
301
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.78
FoulsContext
12.33
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
12.11
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.78
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
11.80
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
45%
On target shareContext
27%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
73%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.38
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.20
BlocksContext
4.30
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
587
PassesContext
378
516
Accurate passesContext
292
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.70
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km156 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Aberdeen
Rest91 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel194 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Aberdeen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 13 Mar | 91Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 19 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 194 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 156 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Aberdeen
Last XI · not confirmed
27M. Müller(G)
24N. Guinness-Walker
5M. Knoester
23L. Mayo
28C. Cadden
32A. Aremu
8B. Lyons
20O. Olusanya
25C. Ronan
11Lewis Smith
15K. Nisbet
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aberdeen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Aberdeen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | W 7–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Motherwell | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Rangers | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| ST Johnstone | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Kilmarnock | W 5–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 18 of 21 · 2.57 per game | 10 of 21 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Celtic wins2 draws0 Aberdeen wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.70
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 2 Sep 2026Celtic3–0Aberdeen
- 4 Mar 2026Aberdeen1–2Celtic
- 21 Dec 2025Celtic3–1Aberdeen
- 10 Aug 2025Aberdeen0–2Celtic
- 14 May 2025Aberdeen1–5Celtic
- 25 Feb 2025Celtic5–1Aberdeen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Aberdeen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 100% | |
| Games | 9 | 1 |
| Celtic | Aberdeen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Aberdeen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 12.78 | 12.11 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 4.67 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Celtic | Aberdeen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 11.80 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Aberdeen9 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Aberdeen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.