Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Aug 29 · 15:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel33 kmRest days3.8 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Falkirk—%
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Graham
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 25
Team strength
Celtic
Falkirk
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
74
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFalkirk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticFalkirk
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
4.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-1.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.58
100%
Scored inContext
0%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
25.50
ShotsContext
10.00
10.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.00
39%
On target shareContext
10%
20.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
77%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.50
BlocksContext
2.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
78%
Save rateContext
83%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
657
PassesContext
419
582
Accurate passesContext
323
89%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.57
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.50
FoulsContext
17.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.90
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
37%
On target shareContext
25%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.22
BlocksContext
3.20
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
55%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
576
PassesContext
381
497
Accurate passesContext
297
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.30
FoulsContext
13.30
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,026 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Falkirk
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel33 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Falkirk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 33 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,026 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 63 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
20C. Carter-Vickers
51C. Donovan
21A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
22M. Baur
13H. Yang
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Falkirk
Confirmed XI
19S. Bain(G)
3L. McCann
5L. Henderson
15L. Neilson
22R. Strain
8B. Spencer
16F. Barbrook
99C. Fodrey
28B. Krauhaus
23E. Ross
7B. Parkinson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Falkirk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Falkirk · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Celtic wins0 draws0 Falkirk wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 25 Apr 2026Celtic3–1Falkirk
- 1 Feb 2026Celtic2–0Falkirk
- 14 Jan 2026Falkirk0–1Celtic
- 29 Oct 2025Celtic4–0Falkirk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Falkirk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 2 | 0 |
| Celtic | Falkirk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — | |
| Failed to score | 10% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Falkirk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 9.00 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Celtic | Falkirk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.90 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Graham 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.92league 3.62
Red cards0.12league 0.08
Cards 5+56%league 15%
Fouls26.8league 24.5
Penalties0.12league 0.54
Home wins56%league 46%
Celtic2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Dec 24H · Hibernian3–01
- W25 Aug 24A · ST Mirren3–01
Falkirk2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Aug 26A · Motherwell0–02
- L9 Aug 25A · Livingston1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Falkirk2 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Falkirk10 games · scored 12 · conceded 26
4
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.