Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Celtic Park, Glasgow

Celtic

1–3Full time

Ferencvarosi TC

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celtic were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Ferencvarosi TC. Celtic had 8 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 21 and had to travel 1,843 km.

Away travel1,843 kmRest days8 · 21Matches / 14d2 · 0

Celtic42%

Draw24%

Ferencvarosi TC34%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.38

Celtic43%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Celtic43%

Draw24%

Ferencvarosi TC33%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.37

Celtic35%

Draw24%

Ferencvarosi TC41%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.55

Celtic41%

Draw25%

Ferencvarosi TC34%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.36

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Glasgow)

No weather data yet

RefereePatrik Kolarić

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 6

Team strength

Celtic

Ferencvarosi TC

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

74 AttackIn forecast 61

50 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celtic

Ferencvarosi TC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.66 xGVia Att/Def —

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

18.20 ShotsContext —

7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

40% On target shareContext 35%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext —

66% Box shareContext —

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext —

14.90 Shots allowedContext —

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

4.70 BlocksContext 3.33

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext —

75% Save rateContext 60%

60% PossessionIn forecast 46%

605 PassesContext —

531 Accurate passesContext —

88% Pass accuracyContext —

7.19 Team ratingContext —

10.30 FoulsContext 15.25

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celtic

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km179 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,843 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celtic	Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 9 Sep	21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,843 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	179 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	28

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Sinisalo(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 20C. Carter-Vickers 51C. Donovan

22M. Baur 42C. McGregor

49J. Forrest 18O. Sørensen 23H. Hassan

11Camilo Duran

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Á. Varga(G)

20Cadu 4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 54O. Nagy

17M. Corbu 6Á. Nagy

15D. Arzani 16K. Zachariassen 11B. Yusuf

18Á. Bagi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celtic Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celtic-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ferencvarosi TC+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Celtic · Home No home games yet this season.

Ferencvarosi TC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celtic	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.96
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Celtic	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.90
Match goals	3.20	2.70	2.96
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celtic	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Celtic	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	8.30	4.25
Corners conceded	4.80	6.25
Match total	13.10	10.50	10.70
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	3.60	3.70	3.10
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Patrik Kolarić 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.27

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls18.7league 25.0

Penalties0.33league 0.09

Home wins50%league 45%

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.