Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel67 kmRest days2.8 · 65.8Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Weather (Glasgow)
11°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
74
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeart Of Midlothian
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.38
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
88%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
20.63
ShotsContext
16.38
9.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
44%
On target shareContext
33%
15.38
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
75%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.75
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.57
3.00
BlocksContext
3.71
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
83%
Save rateContext
63%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
619
PassesContext
446
547
Accurate passesContext
357
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
13.13
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.90
ShotsContext
16.38
7.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
44%
On target shareContext
33%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
71%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.17
16.50
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.57
4.90
BlocksContext
3.88
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
63%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
604
PassesContext
446
532
Accurate passesContext
357
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.60
FoulsContext
13.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.22
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,917 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest65.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel67 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Heart Of Midlothian |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 65.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 13 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 67 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,917 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 42 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed XI
1B. Reus(G)
3S. Kingsley
5J. McCart
64M. Fagan-Walcott
23J. Altena
15J. McPake
6O. McEntee
78L. Mendy
7C. Miller
19Severin Sabri Guendouz
10Cláudio Braga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heart Of Midlothian
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Heart Of Midlothian · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Aberdeen | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kilmarnock | W 5–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Celtic wins1 draws4 Heart Of Midlothian wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.40
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 16 May 2026Celtic3–1Heart Of Midlothian
- 25 Jan 2026Heart Of Midlothian2–2Celtic
- 7 Dec 2025Celtic1–2Heart Of Midlothian
- 26 Oct 2025Heart Of Midlothian3–1Celtic
- 29 Mar 2025Celtic3–0Heart Of Midlothian
- 23 Nov 2024Heart Of Midlothian1–4Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 13% | — | |
| Games | 8 | 0 |
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 3.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.75 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.38 | 7.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 13.26 | 10.63 | 11.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 88% 7/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.26 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.90 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 10.34 | 11.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic8 games · scored 16 · conceded 4
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian8 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.