Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel0 kmRest days2.7 · 37.7Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Rangers—%
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Beaton
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 74
Team strength
Celtic
Rangers
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
74
AttackIn forecast
38
50
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRangers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticRangers
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
3.24
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.91
Goals minus xGContext
-0.99
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
22.50
ShotsContext
20.83
9.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
42%
On target shareContext
32%
16.67
Shots in the boxContext
14.17
74%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.50
Shots allowedContext
9.83
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
3.17
BlocksContext
3.17
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
86%
Save rateContext
93%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
626
PassesContext
455
559
Accurate passesContext
374
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.32
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.00
FoulsContext
13.00
9.83
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.81
Goals minus xGContext
-0.63
100%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.90
ShotsContext
20.13
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.88
40%
On target shareContext
34%
13.20
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
69%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.80
Shots allowedContext
9.38
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.20
BlocksContext
2.86
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
73%
Save rateContext
82%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
610
PassesContext
454
538
Accurate passesContext
382
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.07
10.60
FoulsContext
12.89
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
L
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km156 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
- L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts
Rangers
Rest37.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Rangers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep | 37.7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 13 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 156 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 105 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
20C. Carter-Vickers
63K. Tierney
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
51C. Donovan
8E. Nygren
14L. McCowan
11Camilo Duran
Rangers
Confirmed XI
1I. Pandur(G)
29J. Penrice
24O. Makhanya
37E. Fernandez
21D. Sterling
23D. Gassama
43N. Raskin
6D. Neil
10M. Kim
20Ryan Don Naderi
19K. Kelsy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rangers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Rangers · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Aberdeen | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Celtic wins4 draws3 Rangers wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.70
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 10 May 2026Celtic3–1Rangers
- 1 Mar 2026Rangers2–2Celtic
- 3 Jan 2026Celtic1–3Rangers
- 31 Aug 2025Rangers0–0Celtic
- 4 May 2025Rangers1–1Celtic
- 16 Mar 2025Celtic2–3Rangers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Rangers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 6 | 0 |
| Celtic | Rangers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Rangers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.67 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 13.84 | 12.00 | 11.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.33 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Celtic | Rangers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.10 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 13.80 | 10.88 | 11.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 90% 9/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Beaton 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 3.59
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+50%league 27%
Fouls22.2league 24.4
Penalties0.36league 0.39
Home wins54%league 39%
Celtic13 with this referee
Record10-3-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against7 · 1
Reds1
- W13 May 26A · Motherwell3–22
- W14 Mar 26H · Motherwell3–14
- D1 Mar 26A · Rangers2–21
- W14 Sep 25A · Kilmarnock2–13
- W10 Aug 25A · Aberdeen2–03
Rangers12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 5
- L4 May 26A · Heart Of Midlothian1–22
- W4 Apr 26H · Dundee Utd4–21
- D1 Mar 26H · Celtic2–22
- W28 Sep 25A · Livingston2–11
- W16 Feb 25A · Heart Of Midlothian3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic6 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
Rangers6 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Rangers10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
5
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.