Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Dec 5 · 15:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel78 kmRest days2.8 · 86.8Matches / 14d4 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
ST Johnstone—%
Weather (Glasgow)
Forecast from 20 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and ST Johnstone. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Celtic
ST Johnstone
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
7
74
AttackIn forecast
7
50
DefenceIn forecast
9
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisST Johnstone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticST Johnstone
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
89%
Scored inContext
78%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
20.33
ShotsContext
10.11
9.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
45%
On target shareContext
35%
15.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
75%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.78
Shots allowedContext
13.89
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.56
BlocksContext
4.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
83%
Save rateContext
84%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
604
PassesContext
432
533
Accurate passesContext
345
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.78
FoulsContext
11.00
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
12.56
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.00
ShotsContext
10.40
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
45%
On target shareContext
32%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
73%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.43
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.20
BlocksContext
4.22
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
66%
Save rateContext
82%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
587
PassesContext
430
516
Accurate passesContext
344
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
10.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km4,145 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
ST Johnstone
Rest86.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel78 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
ST Johnstone |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 2 Dec | 86.8Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 9 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 78 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,145 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 98 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
ST Johnstone
Last XI · not confirmed
1T. Steward(G)
2Enes Alic
3C. Diabate
19D. Finlayson
33L. Smith
8J. Holt
42R. McAlear
7T. Steven
30J. Cotterill
11S. Stanton
9J. Fowler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
ST Johnstone
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
ST Johnstone · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | ST Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | W 7–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Aberdeen | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kilmarnock | W 5–1 A | W 4–3 H |
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Celtic wins1 draws1 ST Johnstone wins
Goals per game2.43 – 0.43
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 29%
- 9 Sep 2026ST Johnstone0–1Celtic
- 6 Apr 2025ST Johnstone1–0Celtic
- 29 Dec 2024Celtic4–0ST Johnstone
- 28 Sep 2024ST Johnstone0–6Celtic
- 16 Mar 2024Celtic3–1ST Johnstone
- 3 Dec 2023ST Johnstone1–3Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | ST Johnstone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 100% | |
| Games | 9 | 1 |
| Celtic | ST Johnstone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | ST Johnstone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 7.11 | |
| Match total | 12.78 | 10.44 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 2.78 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Celtic | ST Johnstone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 7.30 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 10.40 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
ST Johnstone9 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
ST Johnstone10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.