Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
15th · 13 pts · 17 played
LLLDL
First leg0–0
2–3Full time
KV Mechelen
5th · 27 pts · 17 played
LDWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 22). Cercle Brugge had 7 days of rest, KV Mechelen 6.1 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen44%
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 19
Team strength
Cercle BruggeKV Mechelen
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
24
AttackIn forecast
18
28
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeKV Mechelen
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
71%
Scored inContext
88%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.88
ShotsContext
10.29
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
31%
On target shareContext
38%
9.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
75%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.81
OffsidesContext
1.91
13.06
Shots allowedContext
14.82
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.38
BlocksContext
4.63
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
89%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
384
PassesContext
394
297
Accurate passesContext
322
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.53
FoulsContext
9.47
12.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
9.70
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
30%
On target shareContext
32%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
77%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.89
BlocksContext
4.22
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
65%
Save rateContext
88%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
401
PassesContext
393
317
Accurate passesContext
319
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.20
FoulsContext
9.80
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
6L. Agyekum
28H. Van der Bruggen
11A. Minda
37E. Diop
17O. Adewumi
9S. Ngoura
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
29D. Salifou
7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 2.00
KV Mechelen · Away
1.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Genk | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game | 26 of 48 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025KV Mechelen0–0Cercle Brugge
- 2 Mar 2024Cercle Brugge2–3KV Mechelen
- 28 Oct 2023KV Mechelen0–2Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.29 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 35% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 65% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 12% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Cercle Brugge | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.88 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 1.41 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 3.82 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 4/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cercle Brugge | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 9.50 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89league 3.82
Red cards0.21league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls23.1league 23.0
Penalties0.37league 0.29
Home wins26%league 42%
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Feb 24H · St. Truiden4–12
KV Mechelen3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D25 Oct 25H · OH Leuven1–13
- D26 Jul 25A · Zulte Waregem1–13
- D5 Nov 23A · Standard Liege1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge17 games · scored 20 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
9
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
KV Mechelen17 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
